The Brazilian orange crop for the marketing year 2023/2024 is forecast at 408 million x 40.8 kg boxes (M. boxes), equal to 16.5 million metric tonnes (MMT). This is a reduction of 1.03% relative to the estimate of the current season due to the incidence of citrus greening, which has been affecting Brazil’s citrus belt, and unfavourable weather during the second bloom, resulting in a reduced fruit set.

The average fruit weight is expected to be 158 grammes as a result of unfavourable climate and diseases, with expectations of lower production and fruit quality.

Around 30% of Brazil’s orange production is destined for the market and 70% is used for juice processing. Brazilian orange juice is forecast down 2% to 1.1 MMT as fewer oranges are available for fruit for processing. Consumption is forecast unchanged while exports and stocks are down with the lower available supplies. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

Meanwhile, the third forecast for the 2023/2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published in February 2024 by Fundecitrus, maintains the projection of 307.22 M. boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7% when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 M. boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.

The forecast, by varieties, is:
• Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi: 58.09 M. boxes
• Other early season: 18.51 M. boxes
• Pera Rio: 97.62 M. boxes
• Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha: 105.20 M. boxes
• Natal: 27.8 M. boxes

The projected fruit drop rate remains at 19% on average, considering all varieties.

Brazil has a total of 5,134 orange grove properties, most of them large producers with high productivity.

In the long term, the trend of the orange industry expanding outside the São Paulo and Minas Gerais area is likely to continue. In the state of Bahia, for example, greening disease does not exist due to the climate and the distance from the main region of the citrus belt.