Most of Brazil’s orange harvest comes from the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais. Those regions are expected to produce 314.09 million boxes (M boxes). This figure represents a decrease of 2.86 M boxes in relation to the initial estimate published in May 2022 and corresponds to 0.9%. The reason for this reduction is the low rainfall volume in the last months, well below the historical average. The average rainfall in the citrus belt accumulated from May to August 2022 was 84 millimetres, which is 48% below the climatological normal. Drier and hotter than normal weather was observed in all regions in that period. The lower rainfall volume affected fruit growth. The orange production forecast for the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas

Gerais includes:

• 57.10 M boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties
• 17.04 M boxes of other early season varieties
• 93.95 M boxes of the Pera Rio variety
• 106.78 M boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties
• 39.22 M boxes of the Natal variety.

HLB, commonly called greening disease, and canker incidence are increasing in Brazil. An annual survey by Fundecitrus shows that the average incidence of HLB increased by 1.05% from 22.37% in 2021 to 24.42% in 2022 in Brazil’s citrus belt. In the regions of Brotas, Limeira and Porto Ferreira, where the incidence was already high in previous years, HLB increased to even more worrying levels of 49.41%, 70.72% and 74.05%, respectively. Fundecitrus reported that most regions have a favourable climate for HLB, and that most regions have a high density of orchards and a large number of medium and small properties. Those factors make it difficult to coordinate joint actions for the regional management of the disease. Moreover, in most orchards in production, diseased trees are not being eliminated, and control of HLBspreading psyllids has been inadequate. Inefficient spraying has also contributed to the increase in HLB. Also impairing the effectiveness of psyllid control is the repetitive use of insecticides from the pyrethroid group without adequate rotation with insecticides with other modes of action. That has led to the detection of psyllid resistance to the pyrethroid group in some places.

The Fundecitrus survey also showed growth in the incidence of canker in orchards. According to the new survey, the disease is present in 18.77% of the trees, an increase of 74.44%. Canker accounts for just 0.21% of fruit drop across the citrus belt. The low rate is related to studies carried out by Fundecitrus that adjust the use of copper in the management of the disease. That adjustment does not impact the effectiveness of the treatment and generates savings of 56% in the amount of product used per hectare.

The main takeaways are:

• The lower amount of rainfall affected the weight and sizes of the fruits in the early varieties of oranges and therefore more fruits are required to fill a box.
• Quality is still poor and not meeting the FCC specs for aldehyde content
• More trees are affected by greening so the fruits from these trees are below standard quality
• More fruits are going to the industry for processing because of they are not suitable for the fresh fruit market
• Supply is still very limited because of the lower-than-expected crop size, processors are still filling contract requirements from the last two years and there is no carryover inventory
• Demand is firm

Price is firm because Brazilian production costs are higher by an estimated 27% compared to the previous crop. Costs of fertiliser, energy, freight and labour have all increased.