The orange oil market enters Spring 2026 with a stable but structurally sensitive supply outlook, supported by steady U.S. citrus production but ongoing long-term pressure on the orange sector. According to the latest USDA Citrus Outlook (2025/2026 season), total U.S. orange production is forecast at approximately 1.74 million tons for early, midseason, and Navel oranges, with California accounting for over 80% of production in this category, primarily for fresh use. At the national level, total U.S. orange production is estimated at around 58-61 million boxes, with California remaining the dominant supplier and Florida contributing a much smaller share due to long term production decline. This provides a relatively stable but not expanding raw material base for peel oil extraction, as most California fruit is directed toward fresh consumption rather than processing. Lemon production growth in California and stable citrus output trends in some segments have helped maintain overall citrus availability, but oranges continue to face structural challenges, particularly in Florida, where citrus greening disease and weather events have caused long-term production contraction. As orange oil is derived from peel during juice processing, supply remains closely linked to processing volumes rather than total fruit production. While U.S. citrus greening pressure is less severe in California than Florida, long-term industry decline in Florida continues to reduce processing flexibility. Demand for orange oil remains steady across flavour & fragrance, beverage, and cleaning industries, supported by its wide functional use and cost efficiency. Overall, the market remains balanced but structurally limited in growth, with pricing influenced by seasonal harvest patterns, processing yields, and regional production shifts.