The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/ São Paulo revised estimate for the total Brazilian orange crop for market year (MY) 2021/2022 is 360.6 million boxes (M. boxes), a drop of 8% compared to the previous estimate. Harvesting in the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt started in May 2021 and should be extended through February/March 2022.

Meanwhile, Fundecitrus’ updated estimate for the 2021/2022 citrus production for the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt placed production at 264.1 M. boxes, the second lowest production in almost 30 years. Adverse weather conditions including a severe drought and successive frosts in June/July negatively impacted the growth of the fruit and increased premature fruit drop. Rainfall from May to November 2021 was 344 millimetres, 31% lower than the historical average for the past 40 years. The intense drought reduced the water level of rivers and reservoirs, affecting water availability even to irrigated groves comprising more than 30% of the citrus belt area.

Brazil’s orange growth was also affected this season as a consequence of the adverse climate. Average fruit weight was reduced to 142.2 grams (287 fruits per box) in the previous forecast update, which is 15.9% lower than in the last five crop seasons. The 2022/2023 (MY, July-June) total Brazilian orange crop is forecast at 405 M. boxes of 40.8 kg each, an increase of 12% compared to the current crop. The forecast is based on the assumption that normal weather conditions will prevail as of mid-December 2021, in order to support fruit setting and development of the second blossoming from the majority of the citrus groves in the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt.

The São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt is projected to be 305 M. boxes, representing an increase of 16% compared to the revised figure for the previous season, accounting for the majority of the increase in available supplies.

Total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent) production for 2022/2023 is estimated at 1.123 million tonnes (MMT), an increase of 16% compared with output the previous season, as a result of more oranges available for processing. Similarly, consumption and stocks are forecast higher. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for nearly three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

According to the 2021 greening survey conducted by Fundecitrus, 43.4 million trees, or 22.37% of the trees in the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt are affected by greening. This figure shows an increase of roughly 7% in the greening infection relative to the 2020 greening survey.

Many citrus farmers reported limited revenue during the 2021/2022 season despite higher prices due to the low productivity in most of the citrus belt. USDA is reporting less investment by some farmers which is likely to reduce the planted area and the renewal of citrus orchards. If confirmed, the lower production area may limit a significant harvest in the coming years, given the decrease in the productive potential in the citrus belt.

BRAZIL : CITRUS BELT ORANGE CROP FORECAST BY VARIETY

Brazil : Orange Production , Exports , Domestic Consumption and Delivered to Processors – 2020/21 to 2022/23 (million boxes )