According to Fundecitrus, the 2021-2022 orange crop forecast update for the state of São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt is 267.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This represents an 8.9% reduction from the previous estimate in May of 294.17 million boxes. These lower figures bring the crop forecast to be about the same as the last crop, which ended at 268.63 million boxes, even though it should have been a better crop due to the alternate bearing phenomenon. But because of continuing drought conditions, which has reduced the moisture level in the soil and caused low water levels in rivers, lakes and reservoirs in what is considered the worst water crisis in 91 years, combined with successive frosts in June and July, the larger crop will not come to fruition.

These unfavourable weather conditions have caused a decrease in the quality of the oranges, since some of the fruits affected by the frosts are dry and crystallised in the inside; a significant reduction in the amount of fruits per trees; the fruits to be smaller and weigh less than the usual oranges resulting in a smaller number of boxes produced; and the highest drop rates of oranges ever seen in recent history. In view of this data and the perspective of climate conditions remaining adverse until harvests end, fruit should present the most critical size and drop rate in historical data. All varieties considered, the average size projected in May 2021, of 259 fruits to fill a 40.8 kg box, which corresponds to an average orange weight of 157.5 grams, is now updated to 283 fruits per box, equivalent to a weight of 144.2 grams per fruit, which is 14.7% lower than that of the last five crop seasons. The projected fruit drop rate increases from 20.5% to 20.9% average, all varieties considered, due to the intense water deficit, frosts and the pressure of pests and diseases, all affecting the physiological activities of orange trees.

Brazil : Citrus Belt Orange Crop Forecast by Variety

The lower crop size has triggered price increases for orange oil, terpenes and d’limonene and all other products generated during the processing of oranges. The supply is limited and lower than expected and demand is on the increase. The prediction is that price will continue to increase and a price release is not expected until March 2023. Moreover, in August 2021, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a final rule revoking all “tolerances” for chlorpyrifos, which establish an amount of a pesticide that is allowed in food. This is causing many quality control rejections, and thus making a difficult situation even worse. According to growers, chlorpyrifos will remain in the trees for at least 2 to 3 years.

It is too early for a 2022-2023 orange crop forecast, but considering it will be an “off” year according to the alternate bearing phenomenon cycle, and the extreme adverse weather conditions which may affect the fruit setting for the new crop, together with a late start for the next crop, as blooming has not fully started yet, a potential crop of 300 million boxes is expected.

Brazil Citrus Belt : Orange Production 1989/90 to 2022/23 (million boxes )