Bitter Orange Oil Citrus aurantium ssp amara Harvest: April - June

Production of both green and mature fruits has been quite good. In view of some unusual climatic conditions, a very rare second bloom occurred in November and some extra processing has been carried over. Demand is expanding substantially for this material for both flavour and fragrance applications and with reduced availability from Italy and Ivory Coast demand remains firm.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

Excess rain during the summer of 2015 delayed the lemon harvest and affected the fruit quality and yield but despite the slow start LEMON PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED AT 1.10 MILLION METRIC TONS. This is an increase from 780,000 metric tons in 2013/14 but still down on previous years.

Argentina has a significantly bigger impact on the global processed lemon market owing to the fact they PROCESS UP TO 85% OF THEIR LARGE CROP. This figure in 2015 was 820,000 MT, 2.5 times larger than the combined lemons processed across the EU. This is why Argentina’s crop is so important to our oil markets more so than the fresh fruit market.

Over the past 40 years Argentina’s processed lemon volumes have increased significantly decade on decade, from an average annual volume of 80,000 MT in the 1970s, to 200,000 MT in the 1980s, to 540,000 MT in the 1990s and 900,000 MT since 2000. This is why today its contribution is very important to our markets.

Currently the second bloom (winter season) is underway. Production to date has been good but demand has remained high and as such most of the production is already sold. There are still some good offers available but it could be that soon the market turns back to European supplies and if they do they could be very disappointed.

Mandarin Oil Green Citrus reticulata Harvest: February - May

The new season should start as early as January. The crop is looking modestly healthy but high global demand is likely to keep prices firm.

Blue Cypress Oil Callitris intratropica Harvest: All Year

Supplies are slightly constrained due to increased demand, especially in the USA. Whilst it is planned to build additional capacity during 2016 it is unlikely that this will take full effect until the 3rd quarter, so booking stock early will be of significant benefit.

The plantation resource is secure and users can take comfort in knowing that there is plenty of resource to meet the growing demand. Prices are likely to rise slightly during the first 6 months of 2016.

Buddawood Oil Eremophila mitchellii Harvest: March - October

2015 will see buddawood oil sales surpass previous years as more perfumers are attracted to the deep woody note that is currently in demand, especially at a price point that is very competitive when measured against other woody notes like sandalwood oil.

Production capacity is scheduled to double during 2016 to meet demand and to build additional capacity into the system. Wood supply is strong and secured for at least the next 20 years without expanding the additional licenses. 

Kunzea Oil Kunzea ambigua Harvest: September - January

New production started in December and will dramatically increase capacity for this product. Gone are the days of a boutique aromatherapy product with volumes up to 400 kilos per annum, now we can expect multiple tonnages should the market desire. These new economies also bring new price benefits, which is likely to attract a wider market for more diverse applications.

We expect good supplies into 2016.

Rosalina Oil Melaleuca ericifolia Harvest: April - November

New production will start early 2016 bringing a new quality and increased capacities into the market. This will come as a big relief for the aromatherapy market, which has endured a difficult time lately finding sustainable material especially at the correct quality point.

Today traditional quality availability is limited but by January / February we expect to see this new production sampled and quickly accepted into the market.

Sandalwood Nut Oil Fusanus Spicatus Kernel Oil Harvest: March - November

Production has increased significantly over the last 6 months to meet the demand starting to come from various markets across Europe and the USA. As more product development work started to be  commercialised it is expected that during 2016 we will see the largest demand since the product’s launch a few years ago. Clearly the properties of the oil are being recognised as hugely beneficial and with the oil coming from plantations there is the added security of long term sustainable supply.  

2015/16 harvesting starts this month and will carry through to until March 2016. As this has been a strong year for seed production, stocks will be plentiful should demand grow at a greater rate than predicted. Prices should be stable for the foreseeable future.

Sandalwood Oil Album Santalum album Harvest: March - November

The plantation resource in Western Australia is starting to produce good quantities of oil. Press releases by one of the producers indicate that it will INCREASE PRODUCTION BY MORE THAN 10 FOLD IN 2016 suggesting an additional 10 MT more of Indian sandalwood oil!

With the ADDED INTRODUCTION OF A SECOND SUPPLIER there will be a little competitive tension in the market and whilst the quality of the plantation oil is not quite up to the traditional Indian standard, it does appear to be of reasonably good quality. This will give perfumers a real chance to start using the oil again after a period in the ‘cold’ due to the wild harvest Indian sandalwood not being accepted as it had a high percentage of untraceable wood.

However, prices do remain high with one supplier currently asking US$4,500 per kg but we expect this to change significantly during the first half of 2016.

Sandalwood Oil WA Santalum spicatum Harvest: March - November

Q4 2015 has been extremely exciting as THE FIRST COMMERCIAL OIL HAS BEEN DISTILLED FROM THE HUGE PLANTATION RESOURCE (MORE THAN 18,000 HECTARES) IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA. The oil has an excellent odour profile and meets the ISO specification with the first batches offering an average 18% alpha santalol. Commercial production is expected in the second quarter of 2016 and as a natural plantation derived oil that has a long term supply capacity it will be in demand from brands that want to use a totally renewable oil.

Furthermore, the traditional wild harvest wood looks likely to be reallocated in June 2016 ENDING THE SINGLE SUPPLIER POSITION that has prevailed for the last 20 years. The market should look forward to a potential scenario were there will be multiple suppliers in addition to the new plantation oil. Current and potential end users can look forward to a new era of continuity of supply, with good qualities for the foreseeable future.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: May - November

It’s generally good news for Australian tea tree. After a good season, most volumes are now sold with very few producers / traders holding onto any good quality volumes. This despite an overall increase in yields due to good farm management and favourable weather conditions which provided an INCREASE IN VOLUME OF AROUND 150 MT. This reflects an increase in global demand, which will please the local producers who continue to invest in better quality seeds and additional plantations.

There has also been a significant breakthrough in CHANGING THE ISO STANDARD to include the Chiral testing or terpinen-4-ol, which will help identify adulterated oil in the market. This has become a particular barrier for producers and traders offering pure material, as current ISO standards don’t allow for sufficient testing to identify the presence of some synthetics or Chinese ‘type’ oil. This generally leads to a difference of around 15-20% in the selling price. This should take effect in 2016 and restore some balance to the market place. If this does reduce the global acceptance of adulterated oil we are likely to see an increased demand for the pure oil.

Kumquat Oil Fortunella japonica Harvest: December - February

Supplies have slowly returned to normal after a shortage during Q3 due to early rains.

Good interest continues to grow for fine fragrance applications with the Far East market particularly receptive to its unique character. Expect to hear more about this oil in 2016!

Lime Oil CP Citrus latifolia Harvest: January - April

New production will commence around mid-February but forecasters are already predicting a poor crop. Continued droughts and a growing domestic demand for fresh fruit is keeping supplies tight and prices firm. It is expected that prices will continue to firm as oil demand are expected to continue given forecasted shortages elsewhere.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: July - December

In 2014 orange oil exports from Brazil became a 100-MILLION-DOLLAR BUSINESS as average prices hit historical highs. During 2015 these trends continued but while total exports maybe down on last year, average export FOB prices continue to rise.

The highest monthly average export FOB price ever recorded was in July 2014 at $6.56 /kilo but the average yearly prices peaked in 2015 (based on averages up to the end of Q3). Again in July the average prices were at their highest levels of $6.25 /kilo. Since then average prices have fallen slightly but regardless of this 2015 will end showing historical high averages.

The fear at the moment comes from stories emanating from South America, which do not make for happy reading. So as we look towards 2016, what are the experts advising?

Earlier in the year Fundecitrus produced figures disclosing fruit estimates for the year, covering the growing areas along the citrus belt comprising the state of São Paulo and the Minas Triangle region in Minas Gerais. They calculated:

• Total number of oranges bearing trees is 174.13 MILLION TREES
• Average projected productivity for the 2015/2016 season is 1.60 boxes of 40.8 kg per bearing tree.
• Estimated total production of oranges in the 2015/16 season:278.9 MILLION BOXES of 40.8 kg each

This estimate of 278.9 million boxes produced, is greater than the USDA’s estimate earlier in the year of 245 million boxes but significantly down on previous years.

Unfortunately, 30% of the blossoming happened in fruits from the third and fourth bloom, which means a large part of the 2015/16 crop will be from late fruits, which have low juice and yields. Most of these are COMMERCIALLY UNSUITABLE FRUITS for processing which may be why there has been so many delays or mixed messages from producers at origin as they come to terms with these changing conditions?

Today Citrus BR is reporting lower than average brix levels for current harvests due to ‘ELEVATED RAINFALLS observed during the summer and autumn of 2015 in the Brazilian Citrus Belt’. It also goes on to warn the market about the current threat of El Niño with the following statement:

‘The weather forecast from several meteorologists are already predicting and weekly confirming that the influence of EL NIÑO will be observed in South America, from early September to January 2016. EL NIÑO BRINGS HIGHER THAN THE USUAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CITRUS BELT.

The 2015/2016 orange crop was influenced by severe weather conditions from October – December 2014, when drought and high temperatures were observed in the whole State of Sao Paulo, generating several blooms on the trees and also hampering a uniform development of the fruits.’

It is evident that we are suffering a period of uncertainty and with it high prices and a continuing lack of availability.

Based on what we can see in today’s market, depleted stocks at origin and the projections for the next 6 months, we do not expect the situation to improve. In fact, it may well get more difficult for those of us looking to secure our short to medium term orange oil supply.

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July

The season closed with very little surplus stock remaining at origin despite a healthy season. Production was reportedly up by 60-70 MT on 2014 bringing the TOTAL OUTPUT TO NEAR 200 MT. This is a record season for the Bulgarians and plans are in place to continue that growth into the future.

There are still variations in qualities available which reflect the different ages and growing areas within Bulgaria. Many are able to batch and harmonise a standard quality but others don’t have such a luxury.

Today the market seems well balanced but the question will be whether everyone has covered sufficiently until the new season next July / August as producers are generally sold out. We expect some tightening in supply towards the end of Q1 2016.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: May - June

To recap the 2015 season was nothing short of a disaster. The Bulgarian crop ended with up to 50% LESS PETALS THAN IN 2014, which yielded approximately 650-750 kilos of oil.

It is too early to see if there will be any lasting damage to the plants ahead of next year’s crop but it is clear that finding sufficient volumes will be a challenge from now until the next crop.

Cassia Oil Cinnamomum cassia Harvest: May - July, October - December

A small second crop took place during October and November, which yielded some modest figures. With the market relatively flat there wasn’t a huge push on production as prices still remain low and stable. We expect to see this continue into the first half of 2016.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: June - December

This season China had a bumper citronella crop with some estimates suggesting TOTAL PRODUCTION OF 2,200 MT. This is almost double that of 2014 and marks an unprecedented high. As a result, prices have softened slightly but still remain higher than those of other origins. Despite this, China remains the world’s largest exporter.

Expect the market to remain competitive and enjoy some possible price reductions in the New Year.

Eucalyptus Oil Eucalyptus globulus Harvest: July - October

Supply and demand appear fairly well balanced but it is not unusual to see a slow down in production at this time of year.

It is estimated that this year’s total production is in the region of 9,000 MT which is similar to that of 2014, but down on 2013. This overall downturn is maintaining pressure on supplies suggesting that we will not see prices fall any time soon.

Garlic Oil Allium sativum L. Harvest: April - May

No change for this one. Prices remain firm as supplies dry up following a low yielding season, which finished back in June.

Prices are expected to stay firm until the new season.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: May - September

After years of continuous production growth, this year’s crop was considerably smaller than last year. Partly this is due to a slow down in demand following significant price rises last year.

2015 production is expected to finish around 60 MT, 30% smaller than 2014, and the lowest production since 2010.

Today prices remain stable after falls earlier in the year and are expected to remain at these levels into the New Year.

Ginger Oil Zingiber officinale Harvest: January - April

Prices have started to rise a little due to a lack of oil in the supply chain. Most producers are manufacturing to order so when we see any demand hikes then prices tend to jump 5-10%. Otherwise the market is relatively stable but with the new season not far away we could see a small increase in production to help ease supplies.

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July - August

During the season (until October) local crude oil prices exceeded market prices for ‘Bulgarian’ type qualities therefore pricing the Chinese out of the more competitive export business.

Production was lower than usual and it isn’t expected that the Chinese will become more aggressive in the export business during 2016. They are happy supplying domestically and as with other florals have become net importers rather than exporters.

Helichrysum Oil Helichrysum angustifolium Harvest: August - September

The government controlled summer season concluded on 15^th August, with yields only reaching around 40% of 2014 levels. As there was no spring season the market was waiting for the summer crop and was largely pre-sold. Today there is very little material available and it is difficult to find offers. The next season opens around June 2016.

Basil Oil Linalool Ocimum basilicum L Harvest: June - September

Production has been limited this year as an unknown disease in the plant reduced yields during the main production season over summer. A second smaller crop took place in October but this only yielded small amounts of oil, which isn’t unusual for this late crop.

Today there are limited options available, even less of good quality oil, and as a result prices have firmed over 30% in recent months, which is a trend we expect to see continue into the first quarter of 2016.

Chamomile Blue Oil Matricaria chamomilla Harvest: March - May

There are some stocks still available from the 2015 crop but they are reducing with time and it is expected that prices will rise on the back of the decreasing volumes available. This is likely to be the pattern until the new crop in March/April 2016.

Coriander Herb Oil Coriandrum sativum L. Harvest: January - February, June - July

There is very little material available at origin, which is typical for this time of year. Egyptian production starts earlier than other origins and with its limited shelf life most reasonable volumes are made to order. If you need material today, there are some stocks available but it could be advisable to wait until later in Q1 2016 for fresh stocks and offers.

Cumin Seed Oil Cuminum cyminum L. Harvest: May - June

No real changes since our last report. The product remains stable with the general balance in the market being good and any price increases are unlikely at this stage.

As we keep stressing, it is worth noting that other ‘cheaper’ qualities continue to be sold from some Egyptian producers/traders at prices around 20% under today’s market. We feel if you are paying under our guide price you may not be buying pure oil.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: June - July

The markets have remained relatively flat for this product despite the attractive price and as a result stocks remain healthy with plenty of bargains to be had.

It appears the markets will remain relatively flat with the only real threat to prices being the Central Bank’s revaluation of the local currency against the US Dollar. If this happens we could see export prices increase. Of course, there’s always a chance that other local influences will impact on the price but it appears less and less likely at the moment.

Jasmine Absolute Jasminum grandiflorum L. Harvest: June - November

After an active start to the season the markets have quietened a little keeping prices stable and some stocks still available. Expect no real change in the short term but try to cover sooner rather than later for the first half of 2016 as any rise in demand could quickly impact on the local stock situation and prices could rise as a result.

Parsley Leaf Oil Petroselinum crispum Harvest: April - May

No significant changes since our last report with supplies remaining limited as we’re off-season and with little oil being produced this year due to overall weak demand.

Clary Sage Oil Salvia sclarea Harvest: June - July

Most stocks at origin are now sold with farmers commanding some record prices due to the strong demand and disappointing yields this season.

Many expected more from the French producers this year and many contracts for fixed volumes were unable to be fulfilled due to the late Spring/ early Summer heat, which reduced the flowering.

It is estimated around 18MT WAS PRODUCED THIS YEAR but this number seems large given the continued lack of availability. We estimate the figure could to be nearer 15MT.

Turning our thoughts to 2016 there are again promises and talks of additional planting with many pre-booking volumes in anticipation. Whether we get more favourable weather conditions next Spring/Summer we do not know but there is a desire to increase volumes even if the reality is still unknown. All being well a fair price for 2016 material will be closer to Euro 160.00 /kilo should the EXPECTATIONS OF PRODUCTION AROUND 20MT materialise.

Lavandin Abrialis Lavandula hybrida var. abrialis Harvest: July - August

Once the more dominant of the lavandins, abrialis today only represents around 5% of the total lavandins produced and this year production fell 15% on the previous year. This continuing demise will no doubt ensure that one day there will be no more abrialis to speak about.

Today all stocks are depleted and prices are firm with anyone holding small stocks.

Lavandin Grosso Lavandula hybrida var. grosso Harvest: July - August

Grosso has the largest production of the lavandins representing around 82% of production. During the early season expectations were high, as conditions seemed favourable for a good harvest. Sadly this didn’t prevail and in the end the total output was down around 5%. Whilst this doesn’t seem a lot it does equate to around 50 MT of oil, which was already spoken for as many had pre-committed fixed volumes for regular clients.

This shortage put a little pressure on prices and over recent weeks we have again seen some firming of prices as later production from other origins also under performed.  As a result we expect prices to edge upwards during the first few months of 2016.

Lavandin Super Lavandula hybrida var. super Harvest: July - August

It appears all stocks at origin are now sold after a disappointing year in which we saw prices increase to new levels. It is estimated that total production fell somewhere between 10-15%. What stocks are still available on the market are in the hands of traders which is again increasing the pressure on price.

Lavender Maillette Oil Lavandula angustifolia var. maillette Harvest: July

Stocks at origin are now depleted. Production this year was average even if some other lavender types performed better than expected it certainly wasn’t the case for Maillette.  Whilst other lavenders showed modest growth of around 4% on average Maillette suffered. As a result prices finished on average higher than in 2014 as demand for this quality is always high.

Basil Oil Holy Ocimum sanctum Harvest: November - February

The new harvest season has recently started but it is too early to gauge what the final output will be. Early signs appear to be reasonable so it is expected that supplies will improve following a difficult few months. Production will be complete in January and at that time we will have more updates for you.

Black Pepper Oil Piper nigrum L. Harvest: December - February

Prices remain stable with good stocks at origin after a healthy 2015 production and strong carry over stocks. Expect no major changes in the near future.

Cornmint Oil Mentha arvensis Harvest: May - July

There has been some stability in recent months despite production this year being 30% down on 2014. Having said that it is not expected that local stocks will be sufficient to feed the market until the new season so expect prices to possibly rise around February 2016, when it is expected this year’s 30% reduction will be felt in the market.

Davana Oil Artemisia Pallens Harvest: February - April

No changes as we’re off-season with no real availability at source. This will remain until the new season starts in February 2016.

Lemongrass Oil Cymbopogon citratus Harvest: July - November

This year’s crop was down around 30%, which has kept pressure on supply and prices firm throughout the year. It has been difficult to secure good quality oil with reasonable citral content and that trend is likely to continue through winter as it is typical for citral levels to drop at this time of year.

Expect prices to firm until conditions improve and we see plentiful material enter the market but this might not be until Summer 2016.

Lime Oil Distilled (Key) Citrus aurantifolia Harvest: September - December

Major projects continue to progress with a view to standardising the local fresh fruit markets and increasing the capacity to receive more limes for processing. This will take time but it’s likely to offer us more options for some small increased capacity during 2016.

Indian lime is a particularly good quality, similar to that of Mexican Key Lime but given current costs can be slightly more expensive. That said it is always good to invest in new origins and this one is no different. Better economies will come so it would be good to have this quality already approved and purchased.

Palmarosa Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - June

After a quiet period demand has returned and prices have started to increase slightly. Prices had fallen due to sufficient stocks and slow demand which also stopped any major harvesting in 2016. Now these supplies have been exhausted and demand is returning you can expect to see some price movement.

Peppermint Oil Mentha piperita Harvest: April - July

Prices remain stable despite a poor 2015 production alongside weak demand. That said, there remains little material at origin so any return in demand could see prices rise quickly.

Spearmint Oil Mentha spicata Harvest: July - August

The crop has been lower than 2014 by around 35%, returning total output to the levels of 2013. Demand has been constant with no major changes expected in the near future.

Cananga Oil Cananga odorata Harvest: June - August

Short term supplies will be difficult as there was no carry over stocks of oil or raw materials before we entered into the rainy season. This will keep pressure on prices for the next 3-4 months.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: October - February

There has been a MAJOR GROWTH IN EXPORTS this year as many end-users made the switch from Chinese origin material to Indonesia, largely due to the competitive prices. Supplies remain strong with fresh raw material coming from both the traditional Java as well as Sumatra.

Generally, the market interchanges Chinese and Indonesian material 1:1 but the higher content of citronellal in the Indonesian material is both a good and bad factor. Good because many people isolate this molecule and consider the higher the content the better the oil. Bad because if people have adopted an internal specification based on the Chinese oil, then the Indonesian quality could be too different and therefore rejected.  Chinese oil typically has 35-40% citronellal, whereas Indonesian gives us something around 50%. You also have to consider that if the citronellal is higher then other components will be lower, once again making the product different from Chinese. 

If quality controls can make the changes internally then it gives end-users more possibilities to have two origins approved and be able to use the better quality oil from Indonesia.

Expect Indonesian prices to remain competitive with the only swings coming from movements in the exchange rate between the Rupiah and the US Dollar.  

Clove Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: May - September

There remains a good balance in the market place with both supplies and exports continuing to stay strong.  It was expected that prices could fall in the New Year but producers/processors and traders don’t seem to want to make any first moves. Expect the situation to remain stable for the foreseeable future.

Clove Terpenes Eugenia caryophyllate Harvest: May - September

Supplies are plentiful with prices being at record lows. Beta caryophellene is also available in good volumes.

Ginger Oil Fresh Zingiber officinale Harvest: January - May

This product is starting to gain greater interest from the market, especially given the recent quality issues experienced with the Chinese variety. This particular quality has a fresh, volatile top note and is very clean. Also being somewhat more powerful in formulation than the typical Chinese type its usage cost can be very advantageous.

Volumes and capacities are growing so if you haven’t yet seen a sample maybe its time to do so.

Mace Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: March - April, October - November

More production is starting to come on line for this item with market interest also gaining momentum. Expect prices and availability to remain stable as this item develops.

Mace is the red aril the surrounds the nut from the nutmeg fruit but its properties and characteristics differ from that of nutmeg. More information available on this soon.

Massoia Bark Oil Cryptocaria massoia Harvest: September - May

No real changes in recent months, as securing raw materials remains very challenging with any available supplies very expensive. It is unlikely that we will see any reprieve from this situation for the foreseeable future.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: All Year

We remain of the opinion that today’s prices, which have been steady for several months, are the lowest this product can fall too. Prices are discouraging collection and processors have all but stopped any major distillation until finished stocks are consumed.

It is thought that once demand returns to the market then prices will start to rise slowly, eventually returning the product to prices nearer USD 60.00 /kilo, but that could be another 4-6 months away.  Our recommendation would be to cover 2016 now to ensure you continue to take advantage of today’s weak market prices.

Patchouli Oil Pogostemon cablin Harvest: All Year

Prices have risen slightly over the past couple of months largely due to a prolonged dry spell during July and August which killed / stopped the growth of much of the young plantations in Sulawesi. This shortage of raw material put pressure on the markets but thankfully at a time when demand slipped away (during the European holiday period).

Now demand has returned the gap in supplies is adding some pressure but for now supply and demand appear to remain fairly well balanced, ensuring no sudden movements in price. Should there be any large spikes in demand then prices could firm. However looking ahead, raw material supplies are likely to return to normal come April from Sulawesi, which could hopefully relieve any price issues at that time.

PT Van Aroma is continuing to invest in the welfare of the farmers we work with in Sulawesi and providing them with a fair and sustainable income remains our priority. Given our exports now account for around 60% of all Indonesian patchouli exports we hope that this in turn will bring stability to oil prices in our markets. Prices this year have been relatively stable despite many issues in dealing with raw material supplies. These efforts go on, unseen every day for the benefit of the market.

Vetiver Oil Vetiveria zizanioides Harvest: January - July

The short version of this story is that demand continues to rise on the back of more end-user acceptance and a growing pressure on Indonesia to fill the gap left by the shortages of other producing countries. Local prices have risen considerably over the course of 2015 and are EXPECTED TO RISE BY ANOTHER 15-20% from early New Year.

Despite the increase in price it seems Indonesian vetiver is still a good option for the market but we are close to having a scenario of a waiting list and months of back orders. Today it is just possible given the limited supply options to meet the market’s expectations.

To give some perspective on the issues and another reason why demand for Indonesian oil is increasing we have the following update from Haiti.

In Haiti vetiver is simply not available, as the availability of raw materials and basic commodities for processing are short. October marked the end of the season with no carry over stocks remaining and a backlog of orders from February when limited production will start again. It is likely that it will take some months before supplies catch up with demand so expect price increases over the first quartet of 2016.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - January, April - July

This year’s Italian fresh lemon production was down 2% on the previous year, with imports from Spain (55%) and Argentina (21%) increasing to support the domestic demand.  Italy’s processing capacities were hit hard last year with 16% LESS LEMONS PROCESSED than the previous year.

While it is still too early to form a clear picture it appears most Italian producers are expecting similar numbers to last year, but in some cases, maybe less. Depending on the producer, the growing region and the type of lemon some crops will be reduced as a result of the hot weather experienced during June and July. Even if it is forecast that crops will be similar to this year the amount of lemons available for processing will be less due to the demands of the fresh fruit markets.

Local prices remain firm and demand for Italian lemon is growing as it is often regarded as a premium product. It appears that this is set to continue into 2016.

Mandarin Oil Green Citrus reticulata Harvest: February - May

The 2015 crop was 15% LESS THAN THAT OF 2014, continuing the decrease we’ve seen in recent years. This is due to farmers turning their attention to other trees as the cost of harvesting and cultivating the fields is too high.  Of the 17,000 MT crop estimate, around 10,000 MT will go for processing.

Today demand for oil remains high and prices could easily rise further during Q1 2016.

Orange Oil Blood Citrus sinensis Harvest: December - February

Although it is a little early to predict it is hoped that the new crop will provide us with some relief after last year’s disappointing output.  DOWN AROUND 45% ON 2014, this year was particularly bad but we are hopeful that come February/March 2016 there is better news for us all.

Early suggestions are for an overall crop of around 1,050,000 MT of which 450,000 MT blond and 600,000 MT of blood orange, of this around 260,000 MT and 165,000 MT respectively will be processed.

Demand for Italian orange is strong as it is for all other origins given the issues surrounding supplies in Brazil. This will further push up prices ahead of the new season although no one is currently willing to speculate on new season prices.

Lime Oil Distilled (Key) Citrus aurantifolia Harvest: May - August

The markets here are finely balanced at the minute and it’s hard to see what may happen next. As we approached the start of the winter season (late November), prices had been starting to rise as local supplies were reducing. Now that the winter season is under way this should ease those tensions in supply but it appears unlikely it will have a dramatic effect. This will only be seen in another few weeks.

We are still in the hurricane season and although the large storm in Hurricane Patricia passed with little damage we are not out of danger yet. That coupled with the El Niño effects that are expected late December and into January we may see a few twists and turns before we understand how the first half of 2016 looks.

2015 was deemed a normal year with production in Mexico recorded at 2,000,000 MT of Key Limes. The growing fresh fruit market took around 80% of this volume leaving 20% for processing. It is not expected that we will see much increase in overall production during 2016 (less if we encounter any unknown problems) but with a growing demand for fresh fruits we could see even less allocated for processing.

Today there is very little material at origin so until the winter season is complete the market could remain a little short.

Artemisia Taurica Artemisia taurica Harvest: July - September

Supplies at origin are now all sold. Additionally a lack of good transport companies and continuous political issues restricting the flow of goods from producing areas has meant that for this and some other products there have been some delays in goods reaching the market.

As this particular product is wild harvested from areas around Crimea and the South of Ukraine forecasting what 2016 brings is difficult. That said this year has been easier than last so we remain hopeful more normal conditions will prevail next year.

Unfortunately other origin qualities are different so keeping healthy stocks into 2016 to protect yourself is advisable.

Clary Sage Oil Salvia sclarea L. Harvest: July - August

There is no change or let up on this product as demand remains very strong and despite a good crop there still remains LIMITED SUPPLIES available at origin. This is due to a GROWING DEMAND, the lack of output from other producing countries and the increased demand for sclaireol from China.

Today the major producers are stating that they are sold out with all material shipped or pending shipment to those customers who booked ahead.

It is clear that prices will remain firm this year and into 2016 when it is hoped that by late next summer both Russia and other origins will be producing more, which could bring some relief to this situation.

Coriander Herb Oil Coriandrum sativum L. Harvest: May - June

Generally, the markets are very quiet for this product, which is not unusual for the time of year. There are some stocks amongst traders and producers, which could be purchased at a good price, but remember this one has a limited shelf life. Expect prices to fall rather than rise during this off-season as most major end-users appear to be well covered and people will be keen to place what oil they are still holding in stock.

Although production was late in 2015 it was healthy with an unusual carry over due to the ability to produce more oil later in the season. It’s too early to discuss the quality of the crops ahead of next season (starting around May/June) but if the seed markets are any guide then we could expect prices to start the season lower than they did this year.

Coriander Seed Oil Corriandrum sativum L. Harvest: July - August

2015 was best described as a confusing and unexpected year. Prices fell suddenly during the harvest period (around August) despite a strong demand and continuous high prices from the fresh seed markets.

It appears the more significant swings in the oil markets are down to one or two producers competing for market share, rather than a true reflection of the actual raw material conditions. This helped prices finish the year almost half the level of back in January 2015.

Future pricing will very much depend not just on the climatic and political conditions from the country but more so on the strategy of each producer. A sudden withdrawal by one or the other or a re-think in pricing could turn the market back on its head.

Our advice is to tread carefully. It’s hard to see prices falling further but it’s certainly been a buyers market over the last few months. How long this will continue is hard to say but keeping healthy stocks prior to the 2016 harvest next summer could be advisable.

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July - August

After another successive disappointing year for Russian lavender some producers have already destroyed their plantations to focus on other products, leaving the future of Russian production in doubt.

There is no doubt that volumes have been diminishing for years and the cost of maintaining plantations with a history of disappointment has become too much for some. There will still be some production in the territory and from neighbouring post-Soviet countries but it will be smaller in 2016 and insignificant when compared to the output of countries like Bulgaria.

Rosemary Oil Rosmarinus officinalis Harvest: All Year

The market remains starved of oil despite some recent new batches hitting the market. Supplies are being drip fed into the market with no significant production expected until we reach the main season from May onwards.

Today we’re seeing prices rise further and we expect this trend to continue into the New Year.

Basil Oil Linalool Ocimum basilicum L Harvest: August - September

Supplies are limited as we’re now in the off-season with no concrete offers from origin. Prices are firm but may rise further should we see any off-season demand spikes.

Blue Chamomile Oil Matricaria chamomilla (L.) Harvest: December - February

Prices are firm as we await the start of the new season around mid-February 2016. Until then only limited batches are available from traders and at relatively high prices. It’s now time to start planning your 2016 requirements!

Manuka Oil Leptospermum scoparium Harvest: April - October

Although at this time of year harvesting is generally limited (local summer time), stocks at origin have been built up in anticipation of a number of new applications going into production.

2015 has been a good year for the Manuka producers as investment in new harvesting and processing equipment, coupled with an increase in stocks and good marketing, has started to see their justified rewards.

We will be featuring this more in the New Year and expect to have a new report available in January outlining more of the technical details and the key benefits of why you will be seeing more and more of this product used in a wider range of consumer products in the future!

Neroli Oil Citrus aurantium Harvest: April - May

All 2015 season material has already been sold and as a result prices in the market are rising. We are unable to get any firm offers from origin. The new season starts around April 2016.

Cabreuva Oil Myrocarpus frondosus Harvest: All Year

There is no change to previous reports, as supply still remains very tight. This is expected to continue into the foreseeable future.

Guaiacwood Oil Bulnesia Sarmientoi Harvest: All Year

Production continues to improve with good stocks now available at origin. This should remain in place for the rest of 2015.

Petitgrain Oil Citrus aurantium Harvest: All Year

The situation remains unchanged. The market remain difficult, as supply cannot get back ahead of market demand. There are waiting lists for volume at the moment and market prices are increasing as buyers’ struggle to secure their short-term needs. Pressure is likely to remain in place so it is advisable to plan ahead.

Fir Needle Oil Abies sibirica Ledeb. Harvest: April - September

This one is fast becoming a quite desperate situation as there is an increasing shortage in the market as changes to local forestry laws have restricted harvesting. As a result, the major producers are only running at 50% capacity so with each passing month the situation appears to be getting worse. This is expected to remain the case for the immediate future until changes can be made in local legislation to increase the quotas for harvesting.

Eucalyptus Oil Radiata Eucalyptus Radiata Harvest: August - October

Production batches remain small and are a little hit and miss with regards reliability. There are several projects in place to change this but the reality is that demand will still be greater than supply for the foreseeable future. This in itself is restricting potential growth for the product in particular from the North American and European aromatherapy markets with some brands now looking for other eucalypts to fill the gap.

A small amount of production is expected in February/March but it’s unlikely to bring any major relief to the global market.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: July - September

As the 6th largest producer of lemons globally South Africa is not always considered a large contributor, especially for oil, yet it proves to be very consistent and reliable.

Total production throughout the 2013/14 season reached 270,000 MT with almost 60,000 MT sent for processing. That is approximately 25% more than the previous year for oil production. South Africa can be very versatile when it comes to how many fresh fruits are sent for processing and so is capable of being in or out of the oil market as and when it is more commercially attractive to do so.

The season has started and there is some CAUSE FOR CONCERN after larger areas of plantation were assessed. Droughts conditions are being experienced due to unusually low rainfall and above average summer temperatures, which negatively affected the fruit sizes.

As a result, early forecasts are suggesting a 20-25% REDUCTION IN PRODUCTION and although it is too early to estimate as to whether this will impact on the 60,000 MT destined for processing, it is safe to say it’s most likely. This will impact the volume of oil produced and may in turn increase prices.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: June - September

News just in from South Africa is disappointing to say the least. After many years of modest growth, it looks like this year could be very different.

Recently we have come to expect around 400 MT per year of South African orange oil, however the current droughts being experienced in the citrus growing regions are having a devastating effect. BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AND ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURES during the past season, especially during the fruit-sizing period has had a negative impact on fruit sizes.

As a result, early indications are suggesting as much as a 35-40% DECREASE IN FRUIT PRODUCTION. While this may not be reflected in the same decrease in oil produced, it will certainly have an impact.

It is very early to fully assess the true impact, especially on the processed markets, but already prices have started to rise and are likely to continue to do so into the New Year as the harvesting period progresses.

Tagette Oil Tagetes erecta Harvest: June - August

No changes of late with prices stable and with some healthy supplies remaining at origin despite being in the closed season. The next crop will take place in May/June 2016 and it’s expected that prices will remain at today’s levels until closer to this date.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: October - January

It’s off-season now with some modest growth reported during 2015. It is anticipated that more commercialised production will take place in 2016 as more co-ordination between local communities and growing areas takes shape but this will be more for organic oil rather than the more popular conventional type.

Today small volumes of organic tea tree are available with prices varying depending on quality.

Lavandin Grosso Lavandula hybrida Harvest: July - August

The Spanish season is complete with a rather disappointing season to report. There are stocks today but these aren’t expected to meet the market demand. Prices have risen since 2014 with some Spanish producers becoming buyers and trading the oil from other origins to compensate,

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - July

Let’s start with some good news which is in 2014/15 Spain’s fresh LEMON PRODUCTION INCREASED 30% reaching 1,065 thousand MT, record levels both in production and exports. This increase has been attributed to good crop management (irrigation, fertilisation, treatments etc.) and favourable weather conditions during the flowering and fruit setting periods.

Today Spain’s contribution to all EU production is around 65% so what happens in Spain generally makes the biggest impact of all producing EU countries. Production of the Fino variety is estimated at 800,000 MT while Verna is at 300,000 MT, with 35,000 MT of losses.

This increase of fresh fruit production also supported Spain’s desire to fill the gap in the global processed fruit market, a hole left by Argentina following their disastrous 2014 crop. As a result, 300,000 MT OF SPANISH LEMONS WENT FOR PROCESSING, almost double that of the previous year.

Despite the increase in oil output the prices remained relatively firm as fresh fruit input costs for processing continued to rise as the global demand for fresh lemons increased, with Spain also exporting 10% more fresh lemons than in 2014.

So as we turn our attention to this season what are the prospects? Well that’s were the good news ends as fresh fruit prices have doubled in recent weeks.

This is largely due to DROUGHTS and HIGH TEMPERATURES recorded during May, June and July which DAMAGED crops with the impact of this only recently being fully assessed. It appears the REDUCED HARVEST COULD BE AS MUCH AS 25% with farmers compensating for this loss with higher selling prices.

This figure is consistent throughout Spain with a crop reduction of around 25% in Alicante, Castellon 25% and 20% in Valencia anticipated for this season.

How this impacts on the amount of lemons processed, the relative input costs and the market demand for Spanish lemon oil is yet to be seen. A number of producers have some carryover stocks from earlier this year but these volumes are not significant and there’s little to suggest that prices for any fresh oil production will decrease. As per usual trends the volume of lemons in the market come January will be significantly less and, depending on external pressures from other producing countries, we could see New Year oil prices rise and supplies tighten.

A 25% reduction in output would see Spanish fresh lemon production fall to levels below that of 2013/14, to somewhere in the region of 770,000 MT. Based on last year’s fresh export figures of 695,000 MT and with demand growing, farmers will have the option to sell all their production into the fresh fruit markets leaving very little for processing, unless of course the processors can pay more for the fruits, which will only happen if oil prices rise. Watch this space!

Rosemary Oil Rosmarinus officinalis Harvest: February - June

Limited volumes are infrequently available but with each batch comes a higher price. Such is the desperate state of Spanish supply, coupled with that from other regions is making rosemary oil a particular problem at the moment.

Thyme Oil Red Thymus vulgaris Harvest: June - August

This one is another Spanish nightmare, as it seems most are at the moment!  Supplies are already exhausted and the next crop won’t take place until June 2016. Prices have already increased dramatically this year and are expected to continue to do so into the New Year.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

You can see from the chart that production in recent years has fallen and this year’s forecast is set to be no different.

Recently the USDA revised their output figures once again to 12.2 million boxes, a further reduction of 100,000 since August. White grapefruit is forecasted at 2.7 million boxes while red (or pink) is unchanged at 9.5 million boxes. The current fruit size of white grapefruit is below the minimum while current droppage is above the maximum. The current fruit size of red grapefruit is below average, while current droppage is above the maximum.

These reduced volumes continue to put pressure onto today’s oil markets with prices increasing as a result. As we look ahead it is hard to envisage a situation where this improves quickly.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

California is the largest lemon growing state in the United States with 47,000 acres in production. Arizona is second with 8,300 acres. During the 2014-2015 season, CALIFORNIA’S LEMON PRODUCTION INCREASED 9% over the previous season and Arizona’s lemon production was up 11%.

It is expected that this season California production will be stable while Arizona production is expected to be down between 15 and 20%.

Lemon acreage increased this year by 1,000 acres to 56,300 acres and processed fruit increased to 260,000 MT. It is expected that this season will be similar to that of last year with prices remaining relatively firm as demand continues to rise.

The United States is now importing more lemons than ever before. With a growing domestic fruit market and a relatively static local production this is a trend that is likely to continue.

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: February - May

We’ve been reporting for months of the prospects of a poor season in Florida and those pessimistic, but factual views have just been compounded with the latest set of results from the region.

We did report that the crop is set to be the lowest in almost 50 years with an 8% reduction from last year and that this year’s crop is expected to total 96.4 million boxes down from 104.7 million last year and 133.6 million boxes in 2012/13.

However today (press release from 10^th November) the USDA paints an even worse than expected picture with the 2015-2016 FLORIDA ORANGE FORECAST AT 74.0 MILLION BOXES, DOWN 6.0 MILLION BOXES FROM THE INITIAL OCTOBER FORECAST. If true, this forecast will represent 24 PERCENT LESS THAN LAST SEASON’S PRODUCTION AND THE LEAST SINCE THE 1963-64 season of 58.3 million boxes (including Temples)..

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered to 37.0 million boxes. Current size is below the average and projected to be near the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to continue above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 1.1 million boxes. If realized, this will be the LOWEST IN A SERIES DATING BACK TO 1979-1980 when separate Navel forecasts began.

Basil Oil Methyl Chavicol Ocimum basilicum L Harvest: August - September

Stocks at origin are depleted and while stocks are available with some traders, prices continue to sore.

Sweet basil grows during Spring with the first harvests late April and lasting all the way through until September. Sadly until then we will see the markets continue to firm.