Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

2018/19 was a milestone year with Argentina producing a record-breaking bumper lemon crop of 1.80 million MT, the highest for over 50 years. The current 2019/20 crop, which started in March, is 10% lower at 1.6 million MT. Initial prediction figures for the 2020/21 crop suggest it could be as low as 1.0 million MT, a level last seen over a decade ago. Fruit earmarked for processing in the current year is estimated to be 1.12 million MT, substantially lower than previous years.

Stocks of lemon oil are limited. Some carryover inventory from last year are available but these do not meet the agricultural residue specifications for chlorpyrifos. Prices tend to be on the higher side depending on the quality of the oil. Considering the crop forecast, prices seem to be firming out and expected to continue for some time. The upward pressure on prices has been limited by the impact of COVID-19 on beverage consumption, as the majority of lemon oil is used in beverages. While beverage supermarket sales have increased this has been counterbalanced by a substantial fall in beverage sales in the food service sector and other distribution outlets.

Assuming a degree of normality returns along with the vaccines in 2021 then beverage demand should also show some recovery.

Ground realities have turned out to be different from what was envisaged. The winter months, that is the early part of 2020, saw an unsympathetic frost and above normal temperatures in October and November. Rainfall too was inadequate leading to arid conditions which continue even now. Consequently, the upcoming 2020/21 crop estimate is only 1.0 million MT. The volumes of fruit channelised for processing will also shrink to about 660,000 MT. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, transportation lead times have also become longer.

Blue Cypress Oil Callitris intratropica Harvest: All Year

Producers have been distilling lower volumes to cater for the subdued demand for this oil. This is due to the decrease in aromatherapy activities in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, there are limited quantities of oil available in the market.

Buddawood Oil Eremophila mitchellii Harvest: March - October

It is a similar case as sandalwood for buddawood oil. Lack of demand has resulted in marginally more available stock.

Eucalyptus Globulus Organic Crude Oil Eucalyptus globulus Harvest: July - October

Producers are going to produce 5 MT of oil which needs to be produced by the middle of 2021.

Eucalyptus Radiata Oil Eucalyptus radiata Harvest: April - November

The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be a stimulus for the sector. Globally, the demand for disinfectants, household cleaners, and sanitisers has broken all moulds. This has provided an impetus to the essential oil industry since eucalyptus is a known anti-microbial agent. Production remains stable.

Lemon Myrtle Oil Backhousia citriodora Harvest: June - August

The weather is conducive for lemon myrtle to thrive. However, it is the dried leaf that fetches better returns and so most farmers prefer trading in dried myrtle leaves. This poses an inherent problem for distillers to procure dried leaves for distillation into oil.

Sandalwood Oil - Northern Queensland Santalum spicatum Harvest: March - October

With travel and the fine fragrances industry hardest hit by COVID-19 the demand for this oil has plunged.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: May - November

Climatic aberrations have impacted the flourishing tea tree oil production this year. Naturally, crop and production have been affected. Harvesting was delayed from June to July-August, and the crop figures are not encouraging. Australia has been facing extreme high temperatures accompanied by drought-like conditions following some bushfires. Winter directly gave way to summer without any spring. As a result, essential oil yields are forecast to be on the lower side.

Tea Tree Organic Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: May - November

There have been conscious efforts to add more acreage to production of this variant. The newest farm is operational and is offering product for upcoming shipments in February 2021.

Lime Oil CP Citrus latifolia Harvest: January - April

November usually sees low availability of Tahiti limes. Sporadic rains in October are beneficial for the healthy development of the fruit. Availability remains low in early November before gradually increasing again. This year’s production is limited, lower than initial forecasts. September and early October witnessed an escalation of prices. Consequently, many growers harvested early. As a result, much of the fruit had not reached the ideal maturation since November would have been the ideal time for harvesting. Most of the crop is expected to cater to the domestic market and stay within its confines.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: July - December

The year 2020 is taking a heavy toll on the world and Brazil farmers are a worried lot. The most recent Fundecitrus forecast of Brazil’s orange crop covering the Citrus Belt was made in September and predicted a figure of 286.7 million boxes of oranges of 40.8 kg each. This figure includes the key São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus regions. It represents a drastic drop of 26% from the 2019-2020 crop, and the nadir of the last decade.

This year’s total Brazilian orange production is pegged at 382.8 million boxes, compared with 472 million boxes for the previous crop – a fall of 19%. The decrease in crop size took place mainly in the Citrus Belt. Several factors account for the substantial production decline including the alternate bearing phenomenon, where reduced availability of nutrients after a large crop leads to a reduction in crop size the following year. Climatic factors have been a key influence with drought conditions in March/April 2020 leading to reduced fruit size, while high temperatures in September/October affected setting of young fruit. There is even some concern that the crop starting in July 2021 will be affected by the drought conditions. There has been a significant reduction in the number of fruits per tree.

Rainfall deficit and a late second bloom of the previous orange crop are key factors behind this debacle. São Paulo, Brazil’s most important orange region, faced arid, dry weather for several months. The phenomenon of alternate flowering in addition to the droughtlike conditions and higher-than-normal temperatures resulted in additional stress on the young trees and hampered the setting of young fruit. There were considerably lower quantities of fruit per tree. Some amount of precipitation did provide relief but was not enough to offset the damage of the long spells of aridity. The result, a distressing effect on flowering. The late bloom in mid-June resulted in delayed harvest. The season began with satisfactory rainfall that was conducive to a healthy average fruit weight. Operations were in full swing by August, but much slower than last year. It is estimated that 97% of harvesting was completed for the early varieties Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi. Valencia Americana, Seleta, and Pineapple were 66% complete. The Pera Rio harvest was 13% complete while Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and Natal had just begun with 3% and 2% respectively.

The delayed harvest and inadequate rains have affected fruit size, which is lighter than the projected weight. May and June were easy months with the rains hitting the growing areas. However, except for Itapetininga, Duartina, and Avaré, the rains have played truant thus affecting the fruit size and weight. The insufficient rains have forced most growers to resort to irrigation to tide over the water crisis. The areas that received copious rainfall could have improved on the weight of the fruit but this was offset by the larger volumes of fruit. Overall rainfall spanning the critical months from May to August was 14% lower than the usual climatological average recorded over the last few years. June witnessed returning rains that came as welcome relief but the accompanying winds caused considerable fruit drop of 17.3%.

The production of orange essential oil has been like all other sectors affected by the pandemic. Supply logistics and operations were impacted but distillation resumed in adherence to protocol. The rainy season is imminent and this will see a lull in production and lower volumes. Fruits allocated to processing are expected to reduce by at least 25% to 262 million boxes. The market is under pressure from the demand-supply aspect. While producers are struggling to meet escalating demand, supplies are rather limited. This has triggered the prices of orange oil, terpenes and d’limonene to rise.

An important factor that impacts the orange oil price is the demand and supply of orange terpenes and d-limonene, which have a variety of end uses e.g. resins, solvents, fracking and perfumes. The relationship is a complex one and the impact of COVID-19 has increased this complexity. COVID has led to an increased demand for detergents and cleaners which has increased the demand for terpenes and d-limonene, which in turn has put upward pressure on cold-pressed orange oil prices. Meanwhile, COVID has substantially reduced petroleum prices and petroleum derivatives which can be used as substitutes for d-limonene. Due to COVID-19 some estimate that overall total demand for orange oil in 2020 could be slightly down on the previous year, but the decline in production and the resultant tighter supplies would lead to upward price pressure. Added to this are concerns that the effects of the drought will stretch out to impact even the imminent July 2021 crop.

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July

In July restrictions in movement due to the COVID-19 crisis had mostly lifted. Thus, the production cycle of lavender oil was not disrupted, but oil production was higher than the quantity required. Due to overproduction of the oil the price has decreased. There is still demand, but the market situation is constantly changing worldwide. Prices seem to have flattened out currently.

Melissa Oil Melissa officinalis Harvest: July

While COVID-19 did not disrupt production of the oil, it has led to a spurt in demand. North America has seen a massive increase in demand over the past six months. The supply is currently sufficient and should be able to meet the annual demand, which hovers around 2,500 kg/year, though rain in April-June 2021 will have a big role to play in the next supply cycle.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: May - June

COVID-19 has had a massive impact on the industry. Demand from traditional markets has come down drastically. The low demand had a ripple effect and led to oversupply, reduction in price, and increase in stock. The industry will likely suffer from the repercussions of COVID-19 for a few years. The harvest cycle was scheduled in May, and the production process is labour intensive. Thus, the impact of COVID-19 was felt there too. The export price of the oil was extremely low this year. This was primarily due to the low price of rose petals, which also lowered the production costs.

Balsam Fir Oil Abies balsamea Harvest: April - November

The needles of this evergreen fir yield pure essential oil from steam distillation. However, the existing stocks are almost exhausted.

Black Spruce Oil Picea mariana Harvest: May - August

This widespread Canadian conifer Picea mariana offers an invigorating oil. Quite common in the boreal forest, black spruce also thrives in acidic wetlands.

Cedar Leaf Oil Thuja occidentalis Harvest: March - October

Cedar needles and twigs yield pure and 100% natural essential oil. However, prices are on the ascent due to limited stocks available in the market.

Grey Pine Organic Pinus sabiniana Harvest: May - August

100% pure and natural essential oil from this genus Pinus banksiana yields oil that is much in demand in the perfumery and aromatherapy sectors. Needles and twigs are steam distilled to extract this freshsmelling essential oil.

Labrador Tea Oil Organic Ledum groenlandicum

A more than robust yield of essential oil this year resulted in healthy quantities of available stock in the market. As a result, there is excess stock leading to around 30% drop in prices.

White Spruce Oil Organic Picea glauca (Moensch) Harvest: May - August

The Picea glauca (Moensch) is like the others, steam distilled to obtain a fullbodied fragrant essential oil. It uplifts and is known for its positive effects on chronic fatigue and overwork.

Cassia Oil Cinnamomum cassia Harvest: May - July, October - December

The output of cassia oil hasn’t directly been affected by COVID-19 restrictions. Instead, the speculation surrounding raw materials related to increased demand of certain products has led to market fluctuations.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: June - December

There is limited enthusiasm among farmers to distil the oil. This is because of the low, stable price of crude oil. The demand and supply cycle remains slow. The situation has been the same since summer. The new production season is about to commence.

Eucalyptus globulus Eucalyptus globulus

While the new season has begun, small volumes are being traded in the market. This is primarily due to the low price the oil is fetching in the market. Farmers and traders are unwilling to sell at current price levels. The oil being distilled by farmers is also limited due to the market trend. In comparison to previous years there is a vast price gap, though the situation has stabilised slightly in the past week.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: May - September

There is a slight increase in the price of the oil even as market transactions shrink. With the crop season over, availability has become an issue.

Litsea Cubeba Oil Litsea cubeba Harvest: July - September

There is a massive demand for the oil in the market. This could lead to a price panic similar to last year. The price is already 5% higher compared to last month. It is advisable to stock the oil, since the goods could run out soon. The oil was last produced in August, and quantities weren’t high. The new oil produced is with collectors instead of farmers.

Star Anise Oil Illicium verum Harvest: March - May, November - December

The oil is priced extremely high this year. The shortage of raw material has led to this spurt in price. The demand-supply gap made farmers sell directly without distilling. The supply chain will be unable to meet future demands once present stock is sold out.

Wintergreen Oil Gaultheria procumbens Harvest: July - September

Prices continue to be low compared with previous years. This has discouraged the farmers from distilling and selling the oil. The production season has begun and will continue till December, though limited transactions are taking place in certain areas.

Amyris Oil Amyris balsamifera Harvest: All Year

In August 2020 a new government took office in the Dominican Republic. It is expected to bring multiple policy changes, which could affect the production of amyris oil. Currently, it is status quo as per March, 2020, when the distillery was shut down by the government. This was due to the decline in wood collection permits by the environmental authorities. None of the distilleries the Dominican Republic are operational, though a few vetiver distillers in Haiti are intermittently producing amyris oil. Even though the price is low, it hasn’t crashed any further.

Helichrysum Oil Helichrysum angustifolium Harvest: July - October

Buyers are enjoying the current market scenario, as there is excess supply compared with demand. The price is currently low. The crop was also good this year.

Chamomile Blue Oil Matricaria chamomilla Harvest: March - May

In 2020 production was very small as carryover stocks were used to satisfy demand. Stocks have now been reduced and prices are predicted to increase.

Cumin Seed Oil Cuminum cyminum L. Harvest: May - June

Production of cumin seed has not been affected by COVID-19. The product is used predominantly in food flavouring and prices are predicted to remain relatively stable.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: June - July

Geranium witnessed a spurt in demand in 2020. Production was almost uninterrupted and unhindered despite the sweeping COVID-19 virus. There were available volumes of oil and prices were steadfast. Industry watchers forecast that these prices will hold till the second quarter of next year with a slight variation between 5 to 10% in Q2 2021.

Jasmine Absolute Jasminum grandiflorum L. Harvest: June - November

Although the demand for concrete and absolute is lower this year, a new demand for jasmine essential oil took place. This helped stabilise prices. If not for that, we would have seen a huge drop in prices. Due to the increase in production, prices went down last season. Expecting it to remain at this level till the new season in 2021.

Marjoram Oil Origanum majorana Harvest: August - September

2020 witnessed a dizzying high of marjoram prices. The reason behind this was the significantly decreased crop. Over the last 3 to 4 years, farmers have been dissatisfied with the returns on their investments in marjoram compared to other crops. Consequently, this year has seen a marked reluctance and decline in the crop size. This in turn is the cause of the sudden price rise of 40% in marjoram oil rates. The market is hoping that prices will even out over the coming months by May 2021.

Neroli Oil Citrus aurantium var. amara Harvest: March - April

The rich floral scent of neroli oil is used in perfumery and COVID-19 has led to a substantial decline in global demand. Egypt has sizeable plantations of neroli and production costs are lower than competing origins. One source has forecast a surplus of 5 MT in coming years which can only lead to very low prices for the foreseeable future.

Petitgrain Mandarin Oil Citrus reticulata Harvest: October - January

Both demand and supply are in balance at the moment and COVID-19 appears to have had little effect. Previous overproduction had pushed down prices and it is expected that prices will remain low in 2021.

Cardamom Oil Elettaria cardamomum Harvest: September - December

Guatemala is the world’s largest cardamon producer accounting for approximately 60% of global production. It is followed by India but climatic factors have seen a substantial fall in recent Indian output. It is estimated that Guatemala’s annual production fluctuates around 30,000 MT and it is produced as a cash crop by 350,000 smallholder families on 63,000 hectares of land. Unlike India, domestic consumption is negligible and all cardamon production is exported predominantly as a dried spice. The Middle East dominates exports, where it is consumed mainly as an essential ingredient of gahwa coffee. Less than 5% of production is steam distilled to produce an essential oil. For several years until late 2018 the oil price remained relatively stable at around USD 200/kg. During late 2018 until recently, supply issues, particularly in India, led to three-fold increase in oil prices. The 2020/21 harvest began in October and thanks to favourable weather and higher yields a good crop is anticipated leading to a price decrease. However, the impact of COVID-19 and climatic factors could limit this downward price pressure.

Vetiver Oil Vetiveria zizanioides Harvest: February - May

The demand for vetiver in the European market has fallen, and prices have plunged to half of what they used to be a few years ago. There has been a steady decline in demand leading dealers and distributors to tread cautiously. Many are buying and holding in order to get higher prices at a later stage. With the pandemic raging and distilleries halting operations, production is at a standstill. The industry has been reeling under the effects of a volatile political climate for the last year. The COVID-19 situation has added to the difficulties faced by the industry. An arbitrary currency manipulation by one of the leading banks of the country led to currency volatility. Exporters of vetiver oil, hitherto earning in dollars, found that they were in deficit. Consequently, many defaulted on debt repayments.

Ajowan Seed Oil Harvest: January - March

Any fluctuations in demand can lead to an increase in the price of raw materials. Currently the price is stable in the market.

Basil Oil Holy Ocimum sanctum Harvest: November - February

Considering the low quantities of carryover stock, increase in demand has pushed the price upward. The new crop season commenced in November.

Cardamom Oil Elettaria cardamomum Harvest: September - December

In comparison to last year the prices have come down drastically. This makes it ideal to stock up in case of short or medium-term requirements. The last two years have witnessed a fall in cardamom production due to climate fluctuations. First the fields were affected by floods, and then long dry spells. This year the ongoing production cycle has been impacted by COVID-19. The restrictions imposed by government have affected the availability of migrant workers, as well as other logistical requirements. Marketing opportunities were also impacted due to the lockdown. With the easing of restrictions, production is slowly picking up.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: October - February

Until recently oil prices were at an all-time low. Slowly the demand is picking up and so is the price, though India isn’t a major player in the market and produces small quantities of the oil.

Clove Bud Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: January - February

With low price prevailing in the market right now, it is advisable to stock up for the year. A good crop has resulted in sufficient supplies and a lowering of the price.

Cumin Seed Oil Cuminum cyminum Harvest: May - June

The last few weeks have witnessed low demand from domestic and foreign markets. The current volumes being traded are the lowest for the last few years. The price is expected to remain stable. As far as the new crop is concerned, the majority of the cultivation zones are experiencing normal to excess rainfall.

Cypriol Oil cyperus scariosus Harvest: February - June

Considering the small volumes of the crop, a slight increase in demand has led to a price surge. With the next crop cycle three months away, price is expected to stay at the prevailing level. Early monsoon and the lockdown both had a role to play in the poor availability last month. The market is witnessing an upward trend now.

Davana Oil Artemisia Pallens Harvest: February - April

Davana is extremely sensitive to climate change. The next crop cycle is in February and predicting the output is not possible at this time. Currently, there is a shortage of high quality davanone material. Carryover stock was also limited, which has led to an increase in price. It is advisable to stock quantities required till next year. Crop sowing commenced in November. Presently the price continues to be stable.

Dill Seed Oil Anethum graveolens L. Harvest: December - January

The price is stable currently. There is limited demand for raw materials in the market. With the new crop ready the next batch of raw materials are available in the market.

Fennel Oil Foeniculum vulgare Harvest: March - June, October - November

The price of raw materials has stabilised. The crop is also good. A further surge in price is not expected, unless there is a significant fluctuation in demand.

Ginger Grass Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - April

The current high demand for the oil has pushed the price upward. Since the quantity of crop produced is low, slight fluctuations in demand lead to an increase in price.

Ginger Oil Zingiber officinale Harvest: January - April

The availability of extraction quality ginger is low. With raw material accessibility becoming an issue there is a sudden surge in demand for the oil. The price has stabilised at a high level. There is a favourable climate for the upcoming crop.

Lemongrass Oil Cymbopogon citratus Harvest: July - November

Adequate rainfall has helped pick up production in major cultivation areas. The distillation process has been hampered by rain. There has been an increase in demand for the oil. This has resulted in a price surge in the past few months. Production is expected to pick up to meet this increased demand.

Mentha Arvensis Oil Mentha Arvensis Harvest: July - December

There was a bumper crop this season. This led to a massive fall in price to levels prevailing in 2010. This is the ideal opportunity to stock up for the long haul.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: June - August

The demand for Indian nutmeg oil has far exceeded the supply. There isn’t much hope of bolstering the supply as the crop season is ending. This has led to a severe shortage of premium quality raw materials. The shortage is expected to continue till the next cycle in April 2021. Nutmeg is primarily cultivated in household farms. The pandemic had an adverse effect in South India, as the supply chain from farms to collection centres was affected.

Palmarosa Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - June

The carryover stock for the oil is low. Production was to pick up post monsoon. Low demand has kept the market stable and prevented the price from fluctuating, though slowly the trend is reversing with an increase in demand for the oil.

Peppermint Oil Mentha piperita Harvest: April - July

Depleting stocks and growing demand have resulted in an increase in the oil price. The new crop cycle is far away. Thus, it is advised to stock up.

Spearmint Oil Mentha spicata Harvest: July - August

There is a shortage of supply and the price continues to be firm.

Turmeric Root Oil Curcuma longa Harvest: March - May

The second half of August witnessed a 3%- 4% price surge, but owing to low sales at high prices, there has been a correction of around 2%. The turmeric sowing season is almost complete. Adequate rainfall in major cultivation zones has been a positive for the crop.

Vetivert Oil Vetiveria zizanoides Harvest: All Year

The unique aroma of this oil has made it a favourite among perfumers. This has resulted in an increased interest in Indian vetiver oil. The current market price is low and customers are advised to stock up on required quantities.

Cananga Oil Cananga odorata Harvest: June - August

Cananga oil has increasingly been preferred in aromatherapy. This has led to almost a 30% surge in demand for the oil. The price has also gone up accordingly. Several new plantations of cananga have come up across Indonesia in Java and Sumatra.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: October - February

La Niña has already brought heavy rainfall to Indonesia. With the rainy season approaching stocks are expected to be hit. Producers are expecting low yields, which will lead to an increase in price. At present, the market for the oil is stable.

Clove Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: May - September

Clove leaves are harvested in the dry season. Unfortunately this year there has been excessive rainfall due to La Niña. This has affected the availability of raw materials. The price remained constant due to COVID-19, but with La Niña, the product quantity has reduced, but demand is on the rise. This will result in a price rise, which could last till July 2021.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: All Year

Currently the demand and price for the oil are stable. There has been a good yield and the output is expected to increase. The global demand for this oil has started to pick up. Hence, the graph could change position in the coming months due to large demand and shortage of good quality material.

Patchouli Oil Pogostemon cablin Harvest: All Year

The demand for the oil is greater than the supply. Heavy and constant rains, floods and the inability to procure dry leaves have led to a supply shortfall. Prices are expected to rise in future so customers are advised to take strong current positions.

Vetiver Oil Vetiveria zizanioides Harvest: January - July

Oils with high acid content are flooding the market. While they are priced lower, these oils don’t meet regulatory specifications. The superior-quality vetiver oil market is stable at the moment. Demand, supply, and price are all firm.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - January, April - July

The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust lemon and all other citrus fruit into the limelight. Consequently, demand has also soared. There are no carryover stocks but early indications are good and market forecasts paint a favourable picture of the lemon crop. Last season’s crop was 30 to 40% lower and prices high but stable. The market is looking at a robust lemon crop, provided weather continues to remain favourable and conducive to a healthy crop. Harvesting has just begun with smaller volumes but all eyes are on the weather. If all goes well, the peak of the season is yet to come with better volumes. There is some trepidation that the new lockdown may hamper harvesting operations and that much of the harvest will be channelised into the fresh fruit market following increased demand. If this happens, prices will skyrocket and disrupt the equilibrium.

Mandarin Oil Citrus reticulata Harvest: February - May

Processing of green and yellow mandarin oil began in September followed in December and January by red mandarin oil. Mandarin production in 2020 is estimated to be down by approximately 20% to 26,000 MT of which approximately 70% (18,000 MT) is processed. Despite the reduced supply COVID-19 has reduced demand and as a result the availability of yellow, green and red oils should improve.

Orange Oil Blood Citrus sinensis Harvest: December - February

Market reports point towards a robust crop though weather plays a critical role in determining the size and weight of the fruit. There are no more carryover stocks from last season since the 2020 crop is lower than last year by a significant 30%. The price for blood orange is stable, albeit on the higher side, but it has lent stability to the market. If the upcoming crop falls short of expectations, it may lead to price upheavals. The industry is optimistic and looking forward to a robust crop.

Clove Leaf Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: August - October

Clove exports from Madagascar have continued on track with not too much disruption. It was possible to continue production despite the hurdles posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indonesian clove leaf oil has fallen short so consignments from Madagascar have been exported to India, China, and Indonesia to make up for the lack of oil.

Vanilla Vanilla planifolia Harvest: August - September

Vanilla is one of the most widely used flavouring ingredients in the food industry and the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted natural vanilla demand, particularly in the food service and tourist sectors. These sectors were the dominant consumers of black and gourmet vanilla, which is thought to account for approximately 20% of natural vanilla consumption. While retail and on-line sales have grown, these have failed to compensate for the decline in other end-uses. Early in the year, at the start of the pandemic, the downward trend in prices was arrested as demand for industrial vanilla grew but this has not continued. Nevertheless, the downward trend in prices combined with the continuing consumer preference for natural flavours should lead to increased demand but this can take some time. However, the high prices of recent years have led to blending of vanilla along with mislabelling and fraud. Thus there are concerns in the market that not all “natural vanilla” is a natural product leading to various lawsuits against food manufacturers in the USA.

The downward pressure on vanilla prices continues as production in major origins increases and supply outstrips demand. The very high prices of recent years encouraged many origins (e.g. Comoros, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Uganda) to try to expand output. Since Madagascar usually accounts for 70% – 80% of global natural vanilla output the economic impact of falling prices will be considerable. Not only is vanilla Madagascar’s second largest export but the sector accounts for approximately 5% of GDP and creates employment for an estimated 80,000 smallholder farmers and their families concentrated mostly in the northeast region of Sava where the plantations are located – Sambava, Andapa, Vohémar and Antalaha. The relatively new Madagascan government is taking a more interventionist role. It has tried to fix a minimum export price (Avis) of USD 250/kg for the 2020 crop, irrespective of grade or quality. While this is below the USD 350/kg price it set in early 2020, it is still above the prevailing market price and is unlikely to hold. The price is not legally binding, but this, in combination with the need for licensed exporters to remit foreign currency earnings from their vanilla exports, has led to some confusion and disruption in the market leading to delays in export volumes. This creates export market opportunities for alternative suppliers including Indonesia, PNG and Uganda. Moreover, the local Madagascan currency (ariary) has been trading at an all-time low, putting further downward pressure on prices.

For decades now, particularly in periods of high prices such as in recent years, many end-users and traders have welcomed alternative supply sources as a potential means of stabilising prices and the market. While new producers have been attracted into the market, Madagascar has continued to be the dominant supplier and this will continue. At lower prices the much more price sensitive non-traditional suppliers with free and open markets have reduced output in response to lower prices. Despite recent falling prices, their production is still trending upwards. Counter-intuitively the lower prices have led to quality improvements since pressure to harvest immature beans has diminished. With better quality vanilla from non-traditional suppliers on the market this has intensified competition for Madagascar’s production.

Estimates suggest that Madagascar vanilla production in 2020 will be about 1,800 MT, higher than the 2019 crop and of a better quality. Moreover, flowering for the 2021 crop suggests another bumper crop next year. The combination of stock carryover and a large production in 2021 will create further downward price pressure. As yet, there are no factors such as hurricanes, disease, political turmoil or demand surges that could create a price floor or put upward pressure on prices. Therefore, some are forecasting prices in the USD 150 – 180/kg price range by the end of the first quarter of 2021, substantially below the USD 600/kg level reached in 2018. How the government will react and how effective this will be remains to be seen, but it is highly unlikely to be able to hold its current minimum export price. Past experience suggests that the market will continue to remain both volatile and unpredictable.

Ylang Ylang Oil Cananga odorata Harvest: February - October

Travel restrictions, closure of airports and duty-free shops have impacted the global ylang ylang market. Production has stopped because there is sufficient stock available at source. However, demand has taken a free fall. There is zero demand except for the high-end superior variety. Prices have been slashed by a whopping 50%.

Lime Oil Citrus aurantifolia Harvest: May - August

Key limes are mainly grown in the state of Michoacán, with about 75% of total volume, and Colima, representing about 20-25% of the total of Key lime volume in Mexico. Key limes are more commonly distilled for oil and are used to produce both lime oil distilled and cold pressed oil, but the latter in much smaller volumes. Persian limes are mainly grown in the state of Veracruz. The primary products of Persian lime are cold pressed oil and juice.

The last five years have seen reduced levels of lime available for processing, in part because of the impact of HLB (citrus greening disease) as well as increased consumption of fresh fruit. 2020 has seen the additional impact of COVID-19 both on demand as well as supply through both harvesting and transport constraints. In addition the drought substantially reduced Persian lime production. The proportion of lime production consumed as fresh fruit has risen from approximately 60% to 85%. As a result the price of limes for processing has increased, the volumes of juice, peel and oil processed have fallen and product prices have risen, including the cost of distilled lime oil. One estimate suggests that the volume of Mexican lime oil produced in 2020 fell by 35%, which was too great a volume to be filled by Peruvian lime oil. As a result lime oil distilled prices have risen by approximately 20%, and it would have been even greater but for the depreciation of the Mexican peso against the USD. Despite the fall in Persian lime production, the reduced output of cold pressed oil seems to have been sufficient to meet demand.

December to January marks a crucial time in the Key lime cycle in Michoacán, Mexico. It is the season for harvesting. Last year, the main growing region was reeling under a severe water shortage and the trees were also impacted. As a result, the crop for 2019/20 is anticipated to be around 2,199,000 MT. It is hoped that the upcoming harvesting season brings better news. Exports are projected to be at 755,000 MT and fresh fruit consumption has gone up to 1,140,000 MT. The processors are expecting around 307,000 MT of fruit to come their way. The lower crop size and consequent processing volumes have exerted an upwards pressure on prices. Rates for the lime oil Persian and distilled are both on the ascent.

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: August - September

2020 saw a serious drought in Mexico leading to a substantial fall in orange production, alongside a reduction in orange processing and orange oil production – by an estimated 40%. Fortunately normal rains have returned to Mexico and we can anticipate a rise in orange oil production in 2021.

Clary Sage Oil Salvia sclarea L. Harvest: July - August

Demand as well as price for the oil is stable. This has been prompted by a normal crop.

Coriander Seed Oil Corriandrum sativum L. Harvest: July - August

The oil is moderately priced at the moment. There is no guarantee that the situation will prevail as demand is rising. It is advisable to secure contracts and purchase orders at the current rate before the market fluctuates. Production costs are already on the rise in Russia due to COVID-19. The crop was also not good this year and some distillers are unable to buy seeds at competitive prices.

Dill Weed Oil Anethum graveolens L. Harvest: July - September

The market for dill weed oil is stable. There is sufficient raw material in the market. The crop was basically average.

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July - August

Similar to lavender oil in Bulgaria, there is immense price pressure on small and mid-size producers. It is turning out to be economically unviable for some of them.

Blue Tansy Oil Tanacetum annuum Harvest: August - October

Small quantities of the organic variety are available in the market. Owing to little demand, and the low carryover price, there has been no production in 2020.

Cedarwood Oil Atlas Cedrus atlantica Harvest: All Year

Demand has remained stable, though there is a shortage of the crop due to the lockdown.

Neroli Oil Citrus aurantium Harvest: April - May

A fall in demand has lowered the oil price. The lockdown impacted the crop quantity. The next cycle of production is April 2021.

Rosemary Oil Rosmarinus officinalis Harvest: All Year

Demand and price of the oil are currently stable. This year the harvest was impacted by the lockdown. A late start resulted in low volumes. The next cycle of production is in June 2021.

Wild Chamomile Ormenis mixta Harvest: May

With the collectors unable to travel for the harvest season, there is no stock for the current year.

Manuka Oil Leptospermum scoparium Harvest: April - October

New Zealand was among the first to implement early lockdown. Since essential oils are categorised as essential services, production was not hampered. Distillers and producers were able to resume operations without an adverse effect on plantations. Global demand for manuka oil continues to remain reasonably strong. Summer and autumn have been good months in terms of weather, leading to a healthy manuka harvest. The plantations in the East Cape region are now established and have joined the inventory leading to significantly good yield of oil. Distillation and production continued, albeit a tad slowly during the onset of winter. This is a usual pattern with work picking up again with the warmer weather of spring. The producer carried out in-vitro testing on the MBTK 20+ grade to test the efficacy of 20% triketone oil. It has proved to be equally effective on acne as the manuka variety containing 25% triketone oil. There are sufficient volumes of 20% triketone manuka oil available in the market.

Cabreuva Oil Myrocarpus frondosus Harvest: All Year

The month of April witnessed interruption in the distillation of cabreuva since production came to a standstill due to COVID-19. Since then production has resumed and continues to be steady.

Guaiacwood Oil Bulnesia Sarmientoi Harvest: All Year

Production of guaiacwood oil remains steady and there are sufficient stocks available to cater for the demand. Under the 2020 CITES Export quota Paraguayan producers are barred from exporting the oil to the EU and UK. The sector is hoping that a favourable decision will be reached and the embargo lifted at the next meeting of the EU SRG (Scientific Review Group) in December.

Petitgrain Oil Citrus aurantium Harvest: All Year

It is not the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic but the impact of a severe drought that the petitgrain producers are reeling under. Production was underway, largely unhindered by the corona situation. However, with the aridity, the yield is affected. There is no stock on offer and the first batches are expected to come in only by end of November or early December.

Fir Needle Oil Abies sibirica Ledeb. Harvest: April - September

Demand for the oil is extremely high due to its usage in disinfectants. Compared with previous years, the production was also low this year. This was due to the dual effect of the coronavirus and increasing production costs. All this is expected to increase the price in coming months. It is advisable to stock up on the oil now. As per trends, September-October generally witnesses the lowest oil price.

Juniper Berry Juniperus communis Harvest: September - October

A significant increase in the price of the oil can be expected. Demand is high and current stock is sold out. For the second consecutive year the crop was highly unsatisfactory. This has made it extremely difficult to procure berries with a good quantity of essential oil. The last period of the crop cycle is going on and producers are trying their best to meet demand.

Pine Oil Pinus sylvestris Harvest: May - August

The oil is priced high. This is due to two factors. The storm last year meant farmers or forest owners had to get rid of fallen trees before commencing production. This process was made harder due to COVID-19 restrictions. As a result, the actual production period was reduced.

Sage Oil Sage offcinalis Harvest: May - October

There is a massive demand for sage oil in the market. The crop was also average, though, supply and price are expected to remain relatively stable.

Sage Oil Sage offcinalis Harvest: May - October

Harvesting and processing of sage is continuing as usual due to considerable distance from the urban COVID-19 hotspots. Sage commands a robust demand in the food and flavouring industry that has not been dented by the pandemic. However, this year’s smaller crop size has pushed up the prices of sage oil in the last quarter.

Thuja Oil Thuja occidentalis Harvest: July - September

There is no stock available at the moment. Producers expect to offer quantities in the first quarter of 2021.

Buchu Leaf Oil Agathosma betulina Harvest: February - March, October - November

It has been a good season for the buchu crop. With copious rainfall in the winter months and dams at full capacity, the crop has been a good one. Fortunately, there has not been much disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, lockdown-affected freight and transportation logistics are unable to function properly. This has posed a scarcity of stocks at ground level. Consequently, prices are expected to hold their peak position for some time.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: July - September

South Africa has added lemon groves and increased the areas under cultivation. The total lemon crop production is predicted to shoot up considerably, by 18% in 2019/20 as compared to the last crop. Another factor that plays a vital role is that the new plantations are now coming into bloom. The growing clamour for processed lemon products and a good crop have a direct bearing on the volumes of fruit for processing. The quantities of lemon diverted for processing are set to go up by 15% because of it.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - July

The harvesting of Spain’s lemon has commenced. Crop forecasts for 2020/21 are optimistic with an estimated increase of 8% compared to last season. Industry reports peg the crop at 1,290,740 MT. There is an embargo on Argentinian exports of fresh lemons to the EU. This, combined with a lower Turkish lemon crop, will enable Spanish lemon farmers to bridge the gap in supply and this is the primary reason that harvesting has begun two weeks earlier than usual. It would however, not be correct to assume that there will be a proportionate increase in the volume of fruit earmarked for processing. Most of the additional volumes will be directed to the fresh fruit market. There is, however, a projected increase in the quantities for processing from 221,000 MT in 2019/20 to 271,000 MT in 2020/21. Traders are anticipating a mounting increase in prices as transportation costs have inched up due to COVID-19.

Cardamom Oil Elettaria cardamomum L. Harvest: September - December

With a limited quantity of raw material, producers are debating between spice production and oil distillation. The price for Sri Lankan origin cardamom has shot up massively with a huge surge in demand.

Cinnamon Bark Oil Cinnamomum zeylanicum Harvest: May - December

The market has managed to remain stable, even with a supply shortage. If the situation remains the same, the price of the oil will shoot up. It is advised to secure quantities for the coming 4-5 months. The anti-viral properties of cinnamon powder have led to a massive surge in demand for raw materials.

Cinnamon Leaf Oil Cinnamomum zeylanicum Harvest: March - August

With the second wave of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, the country has re-imposed a curfew and lockdown. This is expected to lead to a shortage of oil supply in the coming three months. Demand for the oil is high and is constantly pushing the price upward. Current production levels are also low. Farmers are currently holding back stock, or it is already booked by regular customers.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon nardus Harvest: May - December

The market scenario is stable. Both production and demand for the oil are low.

Clove Bud Oil Syzygium aromaticum Harvest: January - February

The upcoming harvest season is crucial for Sri Lankan clove bud oil. With competitive pricing, the Sri Lankan variety may take over some of the Indonesian oil market. Indonesian clove bud oil continues to be the market leader. But a global surge in demand is likely to increase the volumes traded of the Sri Lankan variety.

Clove Stem Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: January - February

Globally the demand for clove oil and its derivates has increased. With the harvest cycle about to commence and continue till January, the Sri Lankan variety can be priced competitively in comparison to the Indonesian one.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: February - May

September witnessed the highest raw material prices. The competitive price of the Indonesian variety prevented the price of the oil from shooting up. The current raw material stock is from the previous harvest. The new harvest season will commence soon. The price is stable, but higher than the previous quarter.

Laurel Leaf Oil Laurus nobilis Harvest: January - April

This is another key component used extensively in the flavouring industry, coveted for its distinctive flavour. The leaves have been harvested and distilled for oil without disruption. However, limited volumes of oil have resulted in an increase in market prices.

Oregano Oil Origanum vulgare Harvest: July - September

A key ingredient in the food business and manufacturing of flavours, oregano continues to enjoy all-year-round healthy demand from this sector. Despite normalcy in operations, crop size is less and this has led to an escalation in prices.

Origanum Oil Origanum vulgare Harvest: July - August

While there is a surge in demand for the oil, high price fluctuations have been successfully avoided for the time being. The crop was average this year.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: April - June

A favourite of perfumers, rose oil has seen some upheavals due to the pandemic. While the crop size was good, demand from the perfumery sector has reduced putting downward pressure on prices.

Cedarwood Oil Texas Juniperus mexicana Harvest: All Year

Its popularity as an organic pesticide and disinfectant has made cedarwood oil a preferred ingredient in household and agricultural products. This is one of the primary reasons why, despite the strict COVID-19 protocol, distillation of cedarwood oil was allowed to continue as an essential service. In the wake of the pandemic, demand for the oil has soared. Distillers are unable to bridge the gap between demand and supply and available stocks are woefully short. To compound the problem, one of the large production plants witnessed a devastating fire leading to an almost complete shutdown of the unit.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

Total US production of grapefruit in 2020/21 is forecast by the USDA at 13.2 million boxes, slightly up on 2019/20. As the table illustrates, production is dominated by Florida, Texas and California with almost equal shares. Citrus greening continues to be a major problem and unless some solution is found supply is unlikely to increase substantially. Approximately 30% is processed into juice, peel and oil, but increased demand for fresh grapefruit, in part because of COVID-19, has reduced the availability of grapefruit for processing. The limited availability of grapefruit oil is impacting prices, especially for white grapefruit oil. Prices are also affected by the oil’s nootkatone content and agricultural residue issues. The typical 0.2% nootkatone content oil is more difficult to find. Prices for some grapefruit oils are significantly lower than two years ago. If demand and supply remain at current low levels then prices are unlikely to return to the high levels seen over the past five years.

October saw the harvesting of the red grapefruit primarily for the fresh fruit market. White grapefruit supplies are tight and availability is limited, which will affect white grapefruit oils supplies. The USA’s total grapefruit crop is predicted to touch 13.20 million boxes with Florida contributing 4.50 million boxes (of which some 2.6 million boxes will be processed). The figure comprises 3.80 million boxes of red grapefruit and 0.7 million boxes of white grapefruit. While the total has recorded a plunge of 7% from last season, red grapefruit forecast is 6% less than last year’s final crop. The white grapefruit forecast is an 11% drop from last year’s figures. The average fruit per tree is also at an historic low since the 1968/69 season. In view of the inclement weather and hurricanes, fruit droppage is anticipated to be above average but it is hoped that this will be compensated by the fruit sizes which are expected to be above average. Prices of the oil hinge upon the presence of nootkatone content and the typical 0.2% nootkatone material is difficult to find.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

Lemon production in 2020/21 is forecast to fall to 23.3 million boxes, a reduction of 2.4 million over the previous year. California continues to dominate production. A lower output of approximately 25% may not necessarily lead to a reduction in processing since one impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is reduced consumption of fresh lemons.

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: February - May

The first 2020/21 forecast puts total USA orange production at 109 million boxes. This includes the country’s largest contributor, Florida’s 57 million boxes, of which an estimated 96% is processed. California comes in second with 50.5 million boxes, of which approximately 80% is sold as fresh fruit, with Texas bringing up the rear with 1.5 million boxes. This includes Valencia oranges of 42.7 million boxes and non-Valencia varieties of 66.3 million boxes. Approximately 60% of US orange production is processed.

Florida’s 57 million is a significant reduction of 15% compared to last season’s crop. The breakdown of the varieties includes 23 million boxes of early, midseason and navel oranges with 34 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

The Valencia orange crop is a 10% decline from last season’s crop despite an increase in the number of trees which has gone up 2% from the previous season. Fruit per tree has gone down by a whopping 18%. This is an alltime low since the 2006/07 season. While fruit size is expected to be below average, fruit droppage has shot up.

Dipping below the bar set by last year’s crop, the non-Valencia forecast of 23 million boxes is 22% lower than last year. Estimated fruit per tree has also declined by 24% to the lowest figure recorded since the mid 1960s. However, fruit size is hoped to be above average while fruit droppage is also high at 27%.

Tangerine and Tangelo Oil Citrus reticulata & Citrus reticulata x C. paradisi Harvest: April - June

The total production of tangerine and tangelo stand at 1.1 million boxes. This is an 8% jump from last season’s 1.02 million boxes.