Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

For marketing year 2021/2022 fresh lemon production is expected to be 1.9 million metric tonnes (MMT) which is 5% higher than the last crop, that ended at 1.8 MMT, and 15% higher than the previous estimate at 1.65 MMT, due to favourable weather conditions. Lemons for processing are projected at 1.49 MMT which is 8% higher than the last crop which ended at 1.38 MMT.

Fresh lemon exports are forecast at 260,000 MT, up 13% from previous estimates, due to larger production. The fresh lemon export business remains profitable. However, lemon sector competitiveness has been affected by significant production cost increases (especially labour, inputs, energy, inland, and ocean freight costs), a container shortage and high inflation rates. Moreover, although the continuous depreciation of the Argentine peso and the elimination of export taxes make exports more price-competitive in foreign markets, a decrease in export rebates and high interest rates partially offset those advantages.

Over the past decade, the lemon sector has been buoyed by investments in new production and technology, with 70-75% of total production devoted to exports of processed lemon products, such as essential oils, frozen pulp, and dehydrated peel. However, global competition and domestic economic contraction have negatively impacted the lemon sector. Global supply of lemon oil exceeds demand and carryover inventory from the last crop is also adding to the high supply of lemon oil. As mentioned above, production costs are higher because of inflation and export costs have increased due to shortages of containers and high freight cost. All these result in a still weak lemon oil price.

TABLE

USDA ESTIMATED ARGENTINIAN LEMON PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND

DISTRIBUTION 2019/20 TO 2021/22 (‘000 MT) 

Buddawood Oil Eremophila mitchellii Harvest: March - October

Demand and supply are balanced, which has kept the price in check. Timber is being stocked, and production can be increased if demand goes up.

Eucalyptus Oil Citriodora Eucalyptus citriodora Harvest: June - October

Production volumes are limited. Demand is holding steady, and stock volumes have reduced. The price remains consistent.

Eucalyptus Oil Dives Eucalyptus dives Harvest: July - October

New plantation areas are coming up, which will augment production volumes by 2024. At present stock is holding steady. If demand is increasing, production volumes could be limited.

Eucalyptus Oil Staigeriana Eucalyptus staigeriana Harvest: July - October

Large volumes are available in stock. Thus, at present production volumes are limited. Demand for the oil is increasing, and with new plantations being established production volumes will increase.

Eucalyptus Olida Oil Eucalyptus olida Harvest: February - April

There is a steady demand for the oil. New product with 80% methyl cinnamate concentration is available in the market. Small volumes are being produced and stocks have gone down.

Eucalyptus Radiata Oil Eucalyptus radiata Harvest: April - November

There is a steady demand for the oil. New product with 80% methyl cinnamate concentration is available in the market. Small volumes are being produced and stocks have gone down.

Kanuka Oil Kunzea ericoides Harvest: September - March

The oil is produced in remote areas with raw materials being harvested from the wild. As a result, low volumes are produced. There is no available stock of the oil. Production is starting slowly.

Lemon Myrtle Oil Backhousia citriodora Harvest: June - August

There is an increased interest for the oil in the market. Production has been ramped up and long-term contracts are fetching a good price. The upcoming crop is in good health. Both varieties of organic and conventional are available.

Lemon Scented Tea Tree Oil Leptospermum petersonii Harvest: July - September

Demand for the oil is limited, thus only minor quantities are being produced. The plant originates in northern NSW and plantations are increasing in that area. As a result, greater production volumes are expected in the coming seasons.

Manuka Oil Leptospermum scoparium Harvest: All Year

Demand and supply are balanced. Unless there is a spurt in demand, oil production will not be increased. The quality available is +20% mbk (methyl butyl ketone). Oil price is also stable.

Rosalina Oil Melaleuca ericifolia Harvest: April - November

There are two sources of rosalina production. In the northern area production is carried out on plantations, while in the south the material is harvested from the wild. The northern varieties have high linalool and low cineole content; it is the opposite for the varieties produced in the south. At present production volumes are limited. Floods have adversely affected production. With new plantations being established, production volumes are expected to increase by 2024.

Sandalwood Oil - Northern Queensland Santalum spicatum Harvest: March - October

Limited raw material is available. The next harvest cycle is in 2023. Production is holding steady and meeting current market demand. Oil in stock is limited.

Sandalwood Oil - Western Australia Santalum spicatum Harvest: March - October

Demand for the oil is steady and decent volumes of stocks have been maintained. Production is expected to go up in 2022. The price of the oil is declining.

Sandalwood Oil – Vanuatu Santalum austrocaledonicum Harvest: March - October

There is limited demand and supply of the oil. Stock levels are also depleting. New production volumes are expected to be added this year.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: May - November

Demand and supply for the oil are low. Harvest operations have been impacted due to unfavourable weather conditions. Floods and persistent rain running into the dry months have delayed harvest operations. This year’s floods have resulted in the loss of 500 hectares of crop. Before the rains, industry estimates predicted production for 2022 to be 1,200 MT. The forecast has now been adjusted to 500 MT. Currently, the oil stock is limited, and the price remains stable.

White Cypress Oil Callitris intratropica Harvest: All Year

Production and processing capacity has been expanded. There is a consistent flow of oil stock and suppliers are willing to negotiate price on long-term contracts., though demand for the oil has reduced.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: July - December

The total Brazilian 2022-2023 orange crop is expected at 414.4 million boxes (M boxes), an increase of 15% over the prior season’s production. This is due to improved weather conditions which helped the groves to recover from the drought and frost conditions which occurred in 2020 and 2021. Most of Brazil’s orange harvest comes from the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais. Those regions are expected to produce 317 M boxes, an increase of 20% over the prior year. One reason for the expected larger crop is the increase in irrigation in Brazilian groves. Irrigated groves now make up 39% of citrus land compared to 31% in 2018. Consumption is up slightly while fruit for processing is forecast 21% up with the jump in available supplies. Despite a forecast of a higher crop, the price of Brazilian orange oil is expected to remain firm because production costs in Brazil are higher by an estimated 27% compared to the previous crop. This is due to high fertiliser, energy, freight and labour costs, as well as limited supply since there is no carryover inventory from previous years and processors are still filling contract requirements from last year.

Brazilian orange juice production is forecast up 21% as a result of more oranges available for processing. Similarly, consumption, exports, and stocks are forecast higher with the rise in production. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for nearly three quarters of global orange juice exports. The European Union remains the major destination of Brazilian orange juice, taking approximately 64% of Brazil’s orange juice shipments.

GRAPH

Graph 1 Orange production from 1988-1989 to 2021-2022 and 2023 crop forecast

Sources: CitrusBR (1988-1989 to 2014-2015) and Fundecitrus (2015-2016 to 2022-2023)

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July

The crop has been good this year, matching last year’s production volumes despite the reduction in lavender plantations. In the last three years lavender has been fetching low export prices, and traditional crops like wheat and corn have become expensive. This has pushed farmers towards traditional crops. The past 12 months have witnessed a significant reduction in lavender fields. From 20,000 hectares (ha) under cultivation, it has come down to 13,000 ha. This number could go down further to 9,000 ha by the coming harvest cycle. This season a good crop has resulted in abundant supply of ISO and non-ISO grade lavender. The oil price is mostly dependant on demand and supply. But the cost of production has gone up significantly due to increases in fertiliser, natural gas and fuel costs. Even labour costs have gone up about 20%. This could result in a 20% increase in the oil price.

Melissa Oil Melissa officinalis Harvest: July

The crop is on expected lines, but the market for the oil is generally slow.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: May - June

The yield has been 20% lower in this cycle. The dry and short season resulted in a crop worse than expectations. Supply issues are expected to plague rose oil for the foreseeable future. There is a massive shortage of manual labour for harvesting rose, with no solution in sight. The cost of manual labour has more than doubled. Even propane gas, which is essential for the steam distillation of the oil saw a five-fold increase in price. All these factors saw the price of rose oil rise.

Cassia Oil Cinnamomum cassia Harvest: May - July, October - December

There is a considerable difference in Vietnamese and Chinese cassia oil, but in terms of natural benzaldehyde it is identical. The Vietnamese variety is exported in larger volumes due to its competitive price. Distillation for the spring crops in China commenced in May. Production volumes remain similar to last season.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: June - December

Epidemic control in the major producing areas of Yunnan has impacted production and trading volumes in border areas have gone down. The price of the oil has also reduced drastically. This in turn has lowered production and availability in the market.

Eucalyptus Citriodora Corymbia citriodora Harvest: June - October

The cheaper Brazilian variety is available in the market so it is difficult to find takers for Chinese eucalyptus citriodora oil. Farmers have also lost interest in distilling the oil.

Eucalyptus globulus Eucalyptus globulus

Demand for the oil has declined. This has resulted in the price falling to its lowest level in last five years.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: May - September

The Egyptian variety is cheaper than its Chinese counterpart, so the demand for Chinese geranium oil has decreased, though its price has gone up due to raw material costs.

Litsea Cubeba Oil Litsea cubeba Harvest: July - September

The majority of the oil is produced in Yunnan province. Production in Hunan province has reduced. The distillation season has commenced, which will continue for a month. Production this year is expected to surpass last year’s volumes. Suppliers will stock decent volumes to overcome any market fluctuations. The price of litsea cubeba seeds is increasing daily, which has resulted in a high oil price.

Star Anise Oil Illicium verum Harvest: March - May, November - December

Suppliers are waiting for the upcoming production season. The next crop season will commence in December. There is limited stock of the oil and the price remains high. Sales have declined in comparison to last year, though the price has increased.

Wintergreen Oil Gaultheria procumbens Harvest: July - September

Farmers have the oil in stock. Inventory levels are rising in the market. Demand for the oil is relatively low.

Clary Sage Oil Moldova Salvia sclarea L. Harvest: June - July

The crop is below average due to the drought in Europe. This will result in an increase in price.

Coriander Herb Oil Corriandrum sativum L. Harvest: July - August

A limited quantity of coriander herb has been produced.

Coriander Seed Oil Corriandrum sativum L. Harvest: July - August

It was a decent crop cycle resulting in a minor decline in price.

Dill Weed Oil Anethum graveolens L. Harvest: July - September

There is massive demand for dill weed in the market. Cost of production has increased due to the rise in energy prices. This has led to a rise in the oil price.

Fir Needle Tyrol Oil Abies balsamea Harvest: March - September

There is no issue with availability of fir needle. The price is high, but it has stabilised now.

Laurel Leaf Oil Laurus nobilis

Market for the oil is stable.

Lavender Oil Moldova Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: September

It was an average crop. Also, cost of production has increased due to rising energy prices. Expect oil prices to go up.

Thuja Oil Thuja orientalis

The market for thuja oil is stable. Demand and supply quantities are in sync.

Cardamom Oil Elettaria cardamomum Harvest: September - December

Cardamom is a volatile spice, and it is advisable to pre-order volumes to secure a better price. The harvest season has concluded with 15% higher yields compared to last year. Oil is expected to reach the market at the end of November-December. Large exporters have left the seed market, which has resulted in a fall in price. Producers may delay selling product and wait till the next harvest to fetch a better price. The seed market is witnessing immense fluctuations. Seeds harvested in the second and third cuts are of lower quality resulting in less essential oil production. This in turn increases production costs

Amyris Oil Amyris balsamifera Harvest: All Year

Raw material is available in abundance. But there is limited access to fuel, which is crucial for Production. Haiti has struggled with production issues for almost a year now due to several security concerns. Gangs control the sole access route to the capital city from the south, delivering products by road is a risky affair. Heavy taxes are levied just to allow transport vehicles to pass.

Basil Oil Holy Ocimum sanctum Harvest: November - February

It is impossible to predict oil quality during the season, since the herbage depends on a variety of factors. The season has been good. The crop flourishes in winter between December and March.

Cardamom Oil Elettaria cardamomum Harvest: September - December

India is a big exporter of cardamom. The current season has seen a good crop, and supply levels have been maintained. The best quality oil is obtained between August and December. The crop season goes on from June-July to February. During this period, the pods are picked five times. Demand for the oil has fallen so prices have reduced.

Carrot Seed Oil Daucus carota

Last season there was high demand, but an unstable crop. The harvest season for carrot seed is between May and August. It has just concluded and the crop is good.

Coffee Arabica CO2 Coffea arabica L. Harvest: November - January

The arabica variety is harvested from November to January, while robusta is picked between December and April. Harvest for this season has concluded and the crop is good. Demand for coffee has gone up because the flavour and fragrance industry are both smitten by the strong earthy notes. The market price for coffee is stable.

Cornmint Oil Mentha arvensis Harvest: May - July

Demand from the overseas market has reduced drastically. Production this year mirrors 2021. Suppliers are left with massive stockpiles and the prices have plummeted. While the traders are suffering losses, it is a good time for buyers to stock oil. The scope for further price reductions is limited. The planting area in 2022 was reduced 10-20%, but this loss was made up by hot climatic conditions, which increased yields by a similar margin.

Davana Oil Artemisia Pallens Harvest: February - April

The harvest season has concluded and the crop was good. But there have been changes in the oil concentration. Ketone content used to be in the range of 40-50%, but now it has come down to 30-40%. Farmers shy away from the product because the yield is limited. This has resulted in a massive escalation of the price in the last few years. Production is now focused on confirmed orders.

Frankincense Oil Boswellia serrata

The resins and oil of frankincense is popular among many industries like fragrance, home care, aromatherapy and pharmaceutical. The harvest season is ongoing and will conclude in November. India is the second largest producer of frankincense globally. The crop is good and the price is stable.

Ginger Oil CO2 Zingiber officinale Harvest: January - April

India is a global hub for ginger in the flavour industry. It is grown in the southern parts of India. For the last few years the crop has been good.

Jasmine Absolute Jasminum sambac & Jasminum grandiflorum

Primarily produced in southern India, the two variants of jasmine, grandiflorum and sambac are extremely popular within the fragrance industry. This harvest cycle has been impacted by uneven rain. Low yield has resulted in a price rise.

Juniper Berry Juniperus communis

The majority of the supply comes from Pakistan. In the last few years a conscious effort has been made to increase juniper berry plantations in Himachal Pradesh. The supply levels are increasing slowly. The crop is harvested twice a year in April and November. This season the crop is stable.

Lemongrass Oil Cymbopogon citratus Harvest: July - November

Harvest volumes were decent for this cycle. Every 60 days the crop is harvested. The last harvest was in July, and the next is scheduled for September. It is one of the most significant crops in India. Demand for the oil has fallen, which has resulted in falling prices.

Palmarosa Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - June

The last harvest season produced good volumes. The upcoming season looks positive as well. The majority of the crop is grown in southern parts of India, and the harvest is scheduled every 3-4 months. The price should remain stable.

Peppermint Oil Mentha piperita Harvest: April - July

This year the crop was good. Harvest season for peppermint is between June and July. 20% of the world’s peppermint oil production comes from India. With consistent supply, prices will remain stable. Availability of genuine natural peppermint oil could reduce in the upcoming months. Traders are blending varieties to meet the quality and price demands of customers. Synthetic furan is also being offered in the market. Quality assurance is compromised if product is purchased from suppliers not connected with farms directly. Suppliers are offering a wide range of prices in the market.

Spearmint Oil Mentha spicata Harvest: July - August

There is limited trading of the oil in the market. The plantation area of spearmint was increased, but crop damage resulted in low yields. The oil price has gone up over 30%.

Star Anise Oil Illicium verum Harvest: September - November

Star anise is local to southern China and northern Vietnam. Arunachal Pradesh India has similar soil and climate conditions to these areas. It is the only state in India that produces a viable star anise crop. It is used by the flavour industry, or imported by certain suppliers for further export orders. Star anise propagates in the spring season. Limited oil is produced as per orders.

Vetivert Oil Vetiveria zizanoides Harvest: All Year

Vetiver is produced in the north and centre of India with the harvest season between January and March. The quality produced in the south is superior due to the climatic conditions and courted by the perfumery industry.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: October - February

Low international demand for the oil is discouraging farmers from distilling. Locally there isn’t much demand for pure citronella. Low quality oil is sold for fragrance.

Clove Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: May - September

Clove production has been massively hit due to erratic rainfall. Clove is primarily produced in Java and Sulawesi, and both areas have been hit by unfavourable weather. The produce harvested is not bearing fruits and turning into pods. The leaves are not dry and eugenol content is low. This will impact the quality and quantity of oil produced. Sieved clove is the raw material used to produce clove bud oil and clove stem oil. With limited production their volumes will also be hit. Due to the unstable market, exporters are importing clove leaf oil from Madagascar.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: All Year

Consistent rainfall has prevented the raw material from drying. This impacts the quality of oil produced. Farmers have stopped distilling, since the yields have dropped 6%-7%. If the weather conditions prevail prices will continue to rise.

Patchouli Oil Pogostemon cablin Harvest: All Year

Unfavourable weather conditions have resulted in low yields. Most farmers are not distilling oil due to the losses incurred. Supply has come down both in terms of the quantity and quality of the oil. Large exporters are influencing market prices by holding purchases.

Lime Oil Citrus aurantifolia Harvest: May - August

The two popular varieties of limes grown in Mexico are the Mexican or Key lime and the Persian lime. The state of Michoacán is the leading Key lime producer in Mexico, followed by Colima and Oaxaca. Michoacán has a winter production window that allows Key limes to enter the domestic market first. Persian limes are grown in northern Veracruz, with smaller scale production in Chiapas, Tabasco, Oaxaca, Puebla, Jalisco, and Yucatan.

Persian lime production in Mexico caters specially to the US market. A substantial increase in production has been attributed to the North American Free Trade Agreement. Lime production in Mexico has also expanded as a consequence of the increase in per capita consumption in the United States. There has been a huge increase in the popularity of fresh fruits over the past few years and this increased demand has led to substantially higher prices. In addition, these conditions have led to a significant decrease in the amounts of fruit for processing and therefore lime oil has soared to record high prices.

Other factors such as high energy, labour and transportation costs, together with inflation, price fixing by criminal groups in Mexico, and more demand for Mexican limes due to a problem with fresh limes from Brazil, are contributing to the difficult lime oil price situation.

TABLE

Fresh Mexican limes: production, supply, and distribution (‘000 metric tonnes)
 

GRAPH

lime prices by history (as reported) in the US | from Mexico

Blue Tansy Oil Tanacetum annuum Harvest: August - October

Demand for the oil has decreased in the last few years. Currently, the market is stable, but yield is expected to be lower due to insufficient rain.

Cedarwood Oil Atlas Cedrus atlantica Harvest: All Year

There is massive demand for the oil. The new crop cycle is from April to October. Currently there are no market fluctuations.

Neroli Oil Citrus aurantium Harvest: April - May

The flowering period was hit by rain and cold weather conditions. The yield in 2022 was lower by 20%.

Rosemary Oil Rosmarinus officinalis Harvest: All Year

Late rain and snow in the growing areas has impacted the crop. The volumes this season are expected to be 30%-40% lower. The new crop was only available in June.

Wild Chamomile Ormenis mixta Harvest: May

Lack of rain will impact the crop. The current harvest season commenced at the end of June or early July.

Cabreuva Oil Myrocarpus frondosus Harvest: All Year

There is good supply of the oil, and production volumes are sufficient.

Guaiacwood Oil Bulnesia Sarmientoi Harvest: All Year

Offers will only be confirmed once the 2022 CITES export quota is fixed. This is expected in September.

Petitgrain Oil Citrus aurantium Harvest: All Year

Production will commence after the conclusion of the winter season by the end of September and carry on till February. Currently production volumes are limited.

Buchu Leaf Oil Agathosma betulina Harvest: February - March, October - November

The buchu harvest season will restart in November-December. High raw material prices have resulted in illegal harvesting of wild buchu. This has extended into the growing period. It will have an adverse effect on regeneration of the wild plant population. This may impact wild buchu production volumes bringing them down slightly, though plantation areas have been added, which may be able to make up the lost volume. Traditionally June, July and August are wet months. But this year the rainfall has been lower than expected. The dried buchu leaf market is on the rise with growing volumes.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: July - September

EU lemon production is expected to close at 1.5 million metric tonnes (MMT), which is lower than the initial forecast. Despite the overall expansion in the growing areas in Spain, unfavourable weather conditions that affected flowering and fruit set in some production areas, along with hailstorms in November have caused the country’s lemon production to decrease. In addition, Italy, the EU’s second largest producer of lemons was hit by floods at the end of October, causing damage to lemon groves in Sicily.

AILIMPO’s first crop estimate of lemon for the next 2022-2023 season forecasts production in Spain of 1.15 MMT, which represents a slight increase of 2% compared to the provisional balance of the 2021-2022 season that is expected to close with a crop of 1.13 MMT. This crop estimate is conditioned by the evolution of weather conditions and the impact on the harvest volume of the entry into production of new plantations, since the lemon area has increased by 12,900 hectares (ha) in the last 7 years, from 37,500 to 50,400 ha.

The start of the 2022-2023 season will be conditioned by the liquidation of the southern hemisphere stocks in September. In this scenario, Spain will start the season on a suitable date that will allow a correct transition and guarantee top quality lemons as a differentiating element.

TABLE

SPAIN: FRESH LEMON PRODUCTION (MT)

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: October - May

EU orange production is projected at 6.1 million metric tonnes (MMT), down from 6.5 MMT in 2020-2021. The decrease is driven by moderate production declines in Spain and Italy, which combined account for nearly 80% of total EU orange output.

Oranges are mainly consumed fresh in the EU. Approximately 80% of EU orange supply is destined for fresh consumption with the remainder destined for processing. Given the smaller crop, the processing share in 2021-2022 is expected to be approximately 13%, i.e., 800,000 MT.

TABLE

TOP EU FRESH ORANGE PRODUCERS (MT)

Laurel Leaf Oil Laurus nobilis Harvest: January - April

Harvesting will commence in mid-September. Price remains stable.

Oregano Oil Origanum vulgare Harvest: July - September

The crop has been decent. The harvest season for oregano is between mid-June and September end. The price is still high.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: April - June

The cost of manufacturing has gone up and the yield is low. Rains have adversely impacted the crop. The price has gone up 60%-70%.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

Global grapefruit production in 2021-2022 is estimated up 4% to a record figure due to favourable weather and the expanded area of production in China. The volume of grapefruits processed is also expected to be greater than last year due to the increased amount of fruit going to the industry from Mexico, China and South Africa. The USA still remains the top producing country for grapefruit oil despite the fact that its production of fresh fruits has dropped substantially. The grapefruit oil price is stable even though demand is weak, as many companies have decreased their reliance on grapefruit oil due to the very volatile market and high prices in the past.

USA grapefruit production is expected to be 9.030 M boxes, 4% down compared to the June 2022 forecast. The July 2022 forecast for all Florida grapefruit production is 3.330 M boxes. The distribution comprises 2.830 M boxes of red and 500,000 boxes of white.

California grapefruit is forecast at 4.0 M boxes, 2.5% down compared to the June 2022 forecast, while the Texas grapefruit forecast tumbled from 2.4 M boxes in 2020/2021 and 2.0 M boxes in the June 2022 forecast to 1,700 M boxes in the July 2022 forecast.

TABLE

USA ESTIMATED GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION 2019/2020 TO JULY 2022 FORECAST (‘000 BOXES)

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

The July USDA Arizona lemon production forecast for 2021/22 stands at 1.3 M boxes, up from 750,000 boxes final production in 2020/21, but 13% down compared to the June forecast. The forecast for California lemon production rose from 20.1 M boxes in the 2020/2021 season to 23 M boxes. Because of the larger crop, the quantity of lemons processed is expected to be higher.

TABLE

USA ESTIMATED LEMON PRODUCTION 2019/2020 TO JULY 2022 FORECAST (‘000 BOXES)

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: February - May

According to the USDA July 2022 forecast, USA orange 2021-2022 production is estimated to drop 13% to 90.15 million boxes (M boxes) the lowest level in over 55 years due to unfavourably dry weather and poor fruit set in California, and the continued decline in area and yields in Florida because of citrus greening. Consumption is up with less fruit going to processing and on higher imports to meet consumer demand. Exports are lower with the drop in production.

The forecast consists of 40.95 M boxes of Florida oranges, 1% up compared to the June forecast; 49.0 M boxes of California oranges, 5% down compared to the June forecast; and 200,000 boxes of Texas oranges, 43% down compared to the June forecast.

The Florida orange total forecast is comprised of 18.25 M boxes of non-Valencia oranges and 22.70 M boxes of the Valencia orange. The California orange total forecast is comprised of 40.0 M boxes of non-Valencia oranges, and 9.0 M boxes of Valencia oranges, while Texas accounts for 170,000 boxes of non-Valencia oranges and 30,000 boxes of Valencia oranges.

In 2004, the year before citrus greening arrived in the state, Florida citrus growers produced 242 M boxes of oranges. But the USDA estimates that Florida’s orange groves will only produce about 41 M boxes this year. This yield will be the lowest since the 1944-45 season, when growers produced 42.1 M boxes.

USA ESTIMATED ORANGE PRODUCTION 2019/2020 TO JULY 2022 FORECAST (‘000 BOXES)

Peppermint Oil Mentha piperita Harvest: July - September

Mint growing areas in the Pacific northwest have seen a decline in production of 20% compared to last year. The period of planting peppermint was impacted due to delayed rains. Till May the growing areas had a water shortage as the snowpack was below normal levels. The rainfall in spring did help the situation to some level. Input costs also increased with fertilisers and pesticides seeing a three-fold increase in price. This prompted a lot of growers to shift from mint to alternate crops like corn and wheat.

A cold and wet spring has delayed the crops by 2-3 weeks. Uncertainty due to weather and the state of global agriculture has made growers cautious to accept orders until harvest. With energy costs also going up, mint prices will witness a substantial increase this year.