Grapefruit Oil White Citrus paradisi

White grapefruit has been on shaky ground. Over the last five years, white grapefruit demand has been on a perpetual decline. This has been a deterrent for farmers to plant this crop. As a result, this has also hindered the addition of new orchards and even the adoption of sophisticated technology for grapefruit production. Prices have been firm and maintained at their steady levels; however, it is increasingly problematic acquiring raw materials.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

As reported previously, Argentina’s 2019/2020 fresh fruit production is estimated to be 1.6 million MT, i.e. 11% lower than the previous crop. This is primarily due to lower cyclical production combined with unfavourable weather conditions, especially high temperatures and the lack of rain in January, February and March. This resulted in a delay in the maturing of lemons and therefore smaller fruits, reducing weight and crop size. This reduction in crop size, together with the newly opened export markets for fresh fruit, will result in a reduction of fruit for processing of approximately 18% to an estimated 1.15 million MT. Annual fresh fruit exports are predicted to grow by 25% to 300,000 MT encouraged by the growth of new markets in India, Vietnam and China, although the EU still takes over two-thirds of fresh exports.

There is no doubt that the outbreak of COVID-19 will have both positive and negative impacts on the sector. The increased demand for vitamin C sources around the world could be beneficial for lemon producers in Argentina. However, supplying the demand could represent a problem in terms of fruit picking and processing due to the social distancing that pickers and processors may have to follow, delaying both the harvesting and processing of fruits. Moreover, the concentration of Argentinian lemon production in the Tucumán region could be a positive, neutral or negative factor depending on the relative regional impact of COVID-19 and when cases peak in Argentina. Nevertheless, the COVID–19 pandemic has added further to the problems being faced by the Argentine economy, which was already in recession and facing reduced international competitiveness as well as major structural problems that have been pushing up production costs.

On a positive note, despite COVID-19, it is hoped that the current season will be less challenging than the previous year. In 2018/2019, heavy rains led to a delay in harvesting while an increase in the global supply of lemons combined with reduced global demand for lemon oil led to a price collapse. As a result, the incomes of growers and processors were substantially reduced and an estimated 130,000 to 140,000 MT of fruit was discarded because it did not meet export standards and was not processed. The gradual increase in prices expected during the 2019/2020 year should create a more favourable market opportunity for Argentinian producers.

USDA ESTIMATED LEMON PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING 2016/17 TO 2019/20 (‘000 MT)

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: March - June

The new orange crop usually commences in July. This year considering the favourable weather conditions, a normal crop size averaging between 720,000 to 750,000 MT is expected. No stocks remain from last year’s harvest and prices are inching upwards from their record lows in the past year. The price increase is reflected in the price of orange juice futures which increased by 25% in just one month, the steepest monthly gain for almost five years.

Anise Myrtle Oil Syzygium anisatum Harvest: All Year

The drought-impacted anise myrtle production is greatly reduced this year. Prices are tending on the higher side and demand is almost stagnant. The scale of production is humble but producers are endeavouring to augment capacities.

Blue Cypress Oil Callitris intratropica Harvest: All Year

Australia’s signature vivid blue oil obtained from the blue cypress tree has been gaining momentum on the popularity charts. Production and processing facilities have been augmented in order to meet intensifying demand. A stable and reliable supply flow has been established and enabled producers to keep up the annual production. With sufficient stocks of oil available the market is in a good position to meet the requirements.

Buddawood Oil Eremophila mitchellii Harvest: March - October

The raging bushfires of the last six months have impacted the buddawood trees and thereby oil production as well. Now timber collection is ongoing. Production has resumed, but slowly; and supplies are inadequate. Efforts are on by the renowned producers to maintain a steady supply.

Eucalyptus Horistes Oil Eucalyptus kochii Harvest: April - November

Logistical issues amidst the COVID-19 situation continue to plague producers. Transportation of biomass to the distilleries is running into huge hindrances and this has led to the sharp rise in input expenses, therefore pushing up prices. Crop rotation has resulted in decent crop output.

Eucalyptus Oil Dives Eucalyptus dives Harvest: July - October

Peppermint eucalyptus is Australia’s new kid on the block. Largely affected by the dry weather of the past year, the current production setup distils limited volumes of oil. Demand, on the contrary, seems to be swelling, and so Golden Grove Naturals has begun establishing plantations.

Eucalyptus Oil Staigeriana Eucalyptus staigeriana Harvest: July - October

This variant of eucalyptus being recently produced in Australia has been adversely thwarted by last year’s drought. Consequently, the forecast for this year’s yield is somewhat on the lower side. Efforts are on to add more areas under cultivation since demand has been inching up.

Kunzea Oil Kunzea ambigua Harvest: September - January

Kunzea is wild-harvested and remains relegated to a cottage industry. Production capacity remains limited though efforts are on to increase capacity via sustainable plantations and product standardisation. There are almost no quantities of oil available, though around 100 kg of oil was predicted to come into the market and 2020 was expected to be better. However, with the onset of the pandemic, there is uncertainty and apprehension hovering over the sector.

Lemon Myrtle Oil Backhousia citriodora Harvest: June - August

Several plantations were added last year and are operational. However, most of the producers were favouring processing of the dry leaves that are a favoured ingredient in the culinary industry and attract better margins. Last year several batches of available oil were found to contain synthetic adulterations under the C14 scan. This was a cause for some alarm.

Lemon Scented Tea Tree Oil Leptospermum petersonii Harvest: July - September

Australian lemon-scented tea tree oil production operates on an unassuming, modest scale. Efforts are underway to increase output by the addition of new plantations and enhanced volumes of production.

Manuka Oil Leptospermum scoparium Harvest: All Year

This was one of the crops that was largely unaffected by the bushfires, unseasonal floods, and droughts. New product specifications with +20% b-triketone (MBk) variety have been implemented and so the manuka variety with +25 MBk will cease to be produced. As a result, there are reduced stocks of this variety.

Rosalina Oil Melaleuca ericifolia Harvest: April - November

Overall rosalina production is small but GGN is the dominant supplier and continues to successfully establish new plantations. Greater land areas will come online in 2020 but droughts are negatively impacting biomass production.

Australia continues to produce two varieties of rosalina oil; the wild harvested southern rosalina and its counterpart from the northern regions. The northern varieties have an increased linalool component and decreased cineole and the reverse is the case for the southern sourced varieties. 2020 early production was seriously hampered by arid weather conditions perpetuated by droughts of 2019. Biomass procurement continues to be a hurdle in the face of the pandemic.

Sandalwood Nut Oil Fusanus Spicatus Kernel Oil Harvest: March - November

Though this is widely considered a weed in pastoral Australia, production continues steadily to meet demand. Last year producers faced difficulty in procuring supplies of wood and entered into a wood-harvesting agreement. The wood is wild-harvested and new harvest was anticipated to come in by early 2020. Now with the COVID-19 situation things are rather uncertain.

Sandalwood Oil WA Santalum spicatum Harvest: March - November

Sandalwood WA commands steady demand matched by stable supply. There were ambitious plans to step up production in 2020 but there is a lot of insecurity due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Sandalwood Vanuatu Oil Santalum austrocaledonicum Harvest: March - October

On-going endeavours will eventually see improved and standardised grades of sandalwood Vanuatu available in the market. Though supply meets current demand, production was set to increase this year. At present despite the pandemic, there is a small quantity of oil held by producers.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: May - November

The Australian tea tree industry has been plagued by a plethora of problems throughout the year. Radical weather fluctuations and periodic droughts have thrown forecasts off track. Erratic weather patterns have led to some of the most ruthless bushfires recorded in modern history, leaving extensive damage in their wake. Vast stretches of arable land, livestock, wildlife, and homes were razed to the ground. Subsequently, incessant squalls in February propelled extensive flooding, leading to abject damage in some unfortunate farms. It was contained in most of the others. Following this, the trees were infested by a plague of pyrgo beetle. Though tea tree is rather resilient and was spared significant damage during the bushfires, it was a stressful 2019, which gave way to an unusual 2020. Expectations of a strong crop were washed away; production levels plummeted by a marked 40% compared to the previous year.

The new year had raised hopes for better performance. Keen appraisals of crop prediction for this year pegs the figure close to 750 MT, with a leeway of around 50 MT more or less. Golden Grove Naturals is well into the 2020 production season having commenced harvest early this year to meet customer demand and avoid early winter frosts. The industry was just getting back on its feet when the pandemic broke out. Despite a surge in demand during the COVID-19 outbreak, this year’s crop estimate hovers at par with the average for the past four years. In anticipation of inflated demand in the COVID-19 crisis, several farms have pre-booked orders with their clients in recent weeks. However, stocks are limited, since there are zero carryover stocks that can be utilised to support supply for this heightened demand.

White Cypress Oil Callitris intratropica Harvest: All Year

There is about 100 to 500 kg of oil available though producers are in the process of augmenting capacities for annual production. Unfortunately, the demand for this oil has somewhat declined.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: July - December

Brazil’s total orange production for the new 2020/2021 crop, starting in July, is expected to be 22% lower than the current crop ending in June 2020. It is estimated at around 370 million boxes (15.1 million MT) compared with the final forecast for the current season of 475 million boxes (19.4 million MT) for all production regions in Brazil. This estimated decrease is mainly a result of alternate bearing (discussed below) and weather-related problems such as warmer than usual temperatures and below average rainfall after the first two blossoms and fruit set in São Paulo State, the dominant growing area.

The latest Fundecitrus report released in early May confirms a reduction of 25.6% for the 2020/2021 crop to 287.76 compared to the previous crop of 386.79 million boxes. This forecast is for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, which accounts for approximately three-quarters of Brazilian production. The expected 287.76 million boxes include:

• 45.53 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi
• 13.05 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple
• 87.04 million boxes of Pera Rio
• 106.16 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha
• 35.98 million boxes of Natal

Some 85% of production will come from the first and second blooms, while 12% and 8%, respectively, will come from the third and fourth blooms.

Apart from the adverse weather conditions affecting the crop, this season is also experiencing a significant reduction in the number of fruits per trees compared to that in the previous crop. This is due to the large production in the last season which increased the consumption of nutrient reserves in plants. As a result of this phenomenon, known as alternate bearing, average yield is estimated to drop to 790 boxes per hectare and 1.65 boxes per tree, compared to 1,045 boxes per hectare and 2.22 boxes per tree last season. The average drop rate of oranges is projected to be 17%, slightly higher than previous seasons. This projected increase is mainly due to the increased intensity of citrus greening.

With this reduction in total orange production, fresh fruit consumption is predicted to fall while the amount of oranges for processing is also expected to drop 95 million boxes (3.9 million MT) to 254 million boxes (10.4 million MT). With fewer oranges for processing then production of orange oil, terpenes and juice will decline. Production of CPOO (cold pressed orange oil) is predicted to fall from 42,000 MT in 2019/2020 to 31,000 MT in 2020/2021 while CPOO exports are forecast to rise 31,000 MT to 41,000 MT during the same period, leading to a significant reduction in inventories. Similarly, during the period, d’limonene production is forecast to fall from 34,000 MT to 25,000 MT while d’limonene exports are predicted to fall by a similar amount from 34,000 MT to 24,000 MT. On the positive side, this increase in demand, together with the expected lower crop, is likely to push prices up after the significant decrease in 2019 when the industry experienced record historical low prices for orange oil and terpenes.

In addition, processing may be delayed by two to three months and yields and quality affected by multi-blossoming. Orange juice production is expected to drop 25% to around 24.3 million boxes (992,000 MT). Even though exports of orange juice are forecasted 27% lower, Brazil remains the largest producer and is expected to account for over three-quarters of global exports with slightly higher consumption and stocks.

The outbreak of COVID-19 is generating both positive and negative impacts on the industry with an outcome hard to predict. Global demand for fresh oranges, for example, has increased due to their high content of vitamin C, but has also decreased due to restaurants, schools and food services being closed. Meanwhile labour availability throughout the supply chain is likely to fall as people are affected by the virus and possible lockdown. In addition, there are some reported issues relating to plant maintenance and the availability of spare parts and equipment. At the national level, the volatility of the Brazilian real combined with political instability are adding to the sector’s problems

USDA ESTIMATED ORANGE PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING 2016/17 to 2019/20 (million MT)

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July

Farmers are contemplating quitting lavender plantations for more lucrative crops. There are limited transactions happening in the Bulgarian market. Superior quality lavender oil is hardly available in the market. These dealings could be the result of unsold crop from last season. COVID-19 is not expected to have a significant impact on the supply, but it is too early to evaluate.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: May - June

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to hit the rose crop harvest. This is primarily due to the restrictions imposed by the government. In Bulgaria, movement of labour is an issue. More than two people are not allowed in the same car, and most of the labour force that pick roses are confined to their villages. Preparations for harvest are on, as forecast predicts the flowering season to begin mid-May, the time this report was being prepared. The government is aware of the issues and everyone is keeping tabs on developments. At present, it is difficult to predict the price fluctuations in the market. No one is certain whether unsold quantities from 2019 will remain in stock till the new crop harvest.

Balsam Fir Oil Abies balsamea Harvest: April - November

Amidst the coronavirus crisis, Canadian balsam fir oil has witnessed a sudden surge in demand owing to its established anti-microbial activity. In the global markets the oil is being used in a variety of germ-protection products and there are several international takers for the oil. Production has been stepped up to meet the spurt on demand.

Black Spruce Oil Picea mariana Harvest: May - August

Production of the Canadian spruce oil white organic remains constant but holds potential to easily augment current quantities.

Cedar Leaf Oil Organic Thuja occidentalis L., fam. Harvest: March - October

This oil is quite a favourite in the perfumery business. It seems that a decrease in demand is imminent in the coming months, as perfumers are expected to buy less than usual. Currently, limited stocks of the oil are available in the market. Production is halted but is expected to resume by June. Prices are stable at the moment but forecasts predict a marginal reduction in price if demand decreases.

White Pine Oil Pinus strobus

It is challenging to produce large volumes of this. Supplies are restricted and prices are escalating.

Cassia Oil Cinnamomum cassia Harvest: May - July, October - December

While harvest for crude cassia was undertaken in April as planned, the distillation has been delayed by a month. The weather conditions in May will primarily decide the output of the spring oil crop.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: June - December

The demand for Chinese citronella oil has seen a massive decline, which has resulted in prices falling drastically. This is a result of the low price of Indonesian oil in the market.

The output for citronella oil is expected to decline further this year. Farmers have been unenthusiastic about distilling given the downward trend in crude oil prices. The strict control imposed by the forestry sector over fire prevention outdoors has also had a role to play.

ESTIMATED PRODUCTION OF CITRONELLA OIL

Eucalyptus Oil Eucalyptus globulus Harvest: July - October

The market for eucalyptus oil is in the phase of slow recovery. While at present the market is down, there is a slight upward movement. Farmers are less enthusiastic about distilling and selling crude oil. Factories are also not interested in stocking large quantities of the product because of the uncertain situation due to COVID-19. The government has adopted strict measures in order to prevent forest fires. In this scenario, most dealers have adopted a wait-and-watch attitude.

ESTIMATED PRODUCTION OF EUCALYPTUS OIL

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: May - September

A sudden spurt in demand has led to farmers increasing the oil price. Besides these rare fluctuations, the market for geranium oil has been relatively stable in the last couple of years. The new season this year is expected to begin around August.

Ginger Oil Zingiber officinale Harvest: January - April

China is expected to see a constant rise in the ginger oil price, due to multiple factors. Firstly, deficit rainfall has seriously damaged the crop. Also, considering the low price fetched by the crop, plantations have been reduced by 20%. Lastly, there is a heavy demand for the product in the spice market.

Litsea Cubeba Oil Litsea cubeba Harvest: July - September

There is hardly any carryover crop from the last harvest, thus the market price has been firm. The current crop season has passed and the new supply of oil will only be available post July.

Wintergreen Oil Gaultheria procumbens Harvest: July - September

There is a short supply in the market, and a price rise is expected in the near future. With the containment of the virus in China, several factories are purchasing raw material to fulfil previous orders.

Amyris Oil Amyris balsamifera Harvest: All Year

With major dealers facing an inventory crunch, the supply of amyris oil is expected to be hit even after the coronavirus crisis is dealt with. It has been over a month that distilleries for amyris oil have been shut down due to the lockdown imposed by the government. Food is being supplied to help the workforce affected by this closure and layoffs. But an extended lockdown can lead to social unrest in the country with a vast portion of the population belonging to the lowest economic strata.

As far as the Dominican Republic is concerned, arrangements are being made to resume production as soon as the situation improves. Security arrangements ranging from 4-metre walls and barbed wire are expected to keep vandals away from production facilities.

Cumin Seed Oil Cuminum cyminum L. Harvest: May - June

Egypt witnessed an immensely successful cumin crop last year; and this year too is expected to be an encore of the last season. Production was up last year, and going by weather conditions, farmers are hopeful for another bumper production. This will have a buoyant effect on current steady prices.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: June - July

Around 60 to 70 MT of oil is waiting to be purchased. However, geranium is facing obstacles in mobilising ready stocks as it is solely a cash-led trade, and the government has enforced a clampdown on cash transactions amidst the COVID-19 situation. Procurement of raw material too is another hindrance that is exerting pressure on existing buffer stocks of oil held by distillers. In addition, the new season scheduled to commence from June, will put more quantities of oil on the market.

Jasmine Absolute Jasminum grandiflorum L. Harvest: June - November

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, Egypt has decided to truncate the usual four-month jasmine production season. Traditionally, the jasmine crop has always exceeded demand and producers have ended up with surplus stock. The shortened season will ensure that the existing supplies are consumed and excess is avoided.

Neroli Oil Citrus aurantium var. amara Harvest: March - April

There seems to be some encouraging news on this front with crop estimates at 1.5 MT. The improved figures are a result of farmers and producers partnering to select good quality raw material and streamlining quantities. The collaboration has shown positive results and this year’s crop is anticipated to better the past few years’ production.

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis

The weather played spoilsport with gusty winds and unusually high temperatures which affected flowering and fruit sets. Production is set to plunge 17% to 3.0 million MT. Egypt is a strong global player in the orange trade and, despite the pandemic, exports are pegged at 1.5 million MT albeit with a 200,000 MT decrease owing to reduced supplies of orange.

Petitgrain Mandarin Oil Citrus reticulata Harvest: October - January

This year the prices of this oil fell. Despite scaled down production this year, there are surplus volumes of oil available. This is the key contributing factor for the reduction in prices. Producers are hoping for an increase in demand in 2021, which is expected to push up prices again.

Clary Sage Oil Salvia sclarea Harvest: June - July

Unfavourable weather conditions have led to a poor harvest in 2019. Despite that operators are faced with large unsold quantities. This is primarily due to the overproduction of clary sage in recent years. The market did not absorb the produced quantities, and buffer stocks kept building up. Even today the demand for clary sage is relatively low.

Lavandin Grosso Lavandula hybrida var. grosso Harvest: July - August

The global demand for lavandin essential oil is quite high. The price of lavandin grosso post the 2019 harvest was considered very high. As a result, very few transactions took place. Currently orders are being placed for antiseptic products. This is not expected to have an effect on the market in the short term. But there are several industries in the sector which have been hit by the slowdown

Currently there is a fall in the price of lavandin but even at these prices few transactions are taking place. Generally, buyers rely on their stocks and wait for the market price to stabilise. Time will tell whether the prices will drop further or will stabilise as many buyers seem to be running out of stock.

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: September

The French lavender market faces stiff competition from Bulgaria. The world’s largest producer of lavender, Bulgaria accounted for 500-600 MT of lavender production in 2019. But the decline in demand from the United States has hit Bulgaria. To offset this and avoid importing intermediaries, producers in Bulgaria are establishing direct contacts with European and American users. There are no indicators to suggest that Bulgaria has seen a downward production trend in 2020. But, the advantage of French essential oils is their superior quality. The current production price is also comparable to previous seasons. Consumption has not been able to match expectations and demand has been at a stable volume.

Basil Oil Ocimum basilicum Harvest: November - February

Stocks of basil have gone down, resulting in a price rise. There is a heavy demand for the oil due to its application in herbal sanitising.

Ginger Grass Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - April

Stock carried over from earlier produce is still available. Thus, the market scenario is ambiguous and the situation will get clear once the lockdown is lifted.

Lemongrass Oil Cymbopogon citratus Harvest: July - November

Lemongrass oil witnessed low production and arrival in the market. This resulted in a high and constant increase in the price of the product, before the COVID-19 crisis brought everything to a halt.

Mentha Arvensis Oil Mentha Arvensis Harvest: July - December

Multiple issues are being faced in the production of M. arvensis oil due to the lockdown. While fertiliser and pesticide shops have been opened by the government, the situation on the ground is tricky. Farmers are not able to carry on their operations as they generally do. The availability of labour is also an issue. In the current scenario farmers are unable to sell their produce, which is increasing the financial strain on them. It will take some time to evaluate the impact of the lockdown on the production of the crop.

India follows a two-step approach for M. arvensis planting. Before the commencement of nationwide lockdown, the crop progress was on schedule. The first part of the process, root sowing, was complete. The second one is transplantation. The impact of lockdown cannot be ruled out at the moment.

Once the lockdown is lifted, heavy demand for the product can be expected. Most customers have run out of stock, and there is no supply from the secondary market, China, as well. Immediate shipments will be requested by customers, once transportation options are available. Currently physical trading has come to a halt, but MCX (the commodities trading platform) is still on. The volume being traded on MCX is low, but a massive spike in price can be witnessed in the spot market.

In the long term, price will stabilise and come down primarily due to a fall in demand as the world economy shrinks. Also, a temporary ban on the production of chewing gum and mouth freshener will reduce the demand for the product.

Palmarosa Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - June

Once the lockdown is lifted, the price trend will be determined by the demand for the oil. Earlier, till the lockdown was enforced, the demand and supply for palmarosa oil was balanced. This resulted in a low price for the product.

Peppermint Oil Mentha piperita Harvest: April - July

A 10% price rise can be expected for pure peppermint in 2020. This is because of multiple factors. Firstly, farmers are unlikely to undertake peppermint farming this year. Secondly, the carryover stock from last season is also limited. Due to travel restrictions, it is not possible to analyse the real scenario in terms of crop output. Only time will tell the impact of low demand vs less production of peppermint in India. Though there could be a few deterrents to a price rise. The competitive price being offered by American peppermint could keep the price of Indian peppermint in check. Also, there will be various products with synthetic impurities and cornmint oil available at a lower price in the market.

Sandalwood Oil Santalum album Harvest: March - November

All existing and current demands for the oil will have to go through mass rescheduling. Due to the COVID-19 crisis, production of the oil has halted. Even when it is resumed, logistical issues will make the fulfilling of orders a massive challenge.

Spearmint Oil Mentha spicata Harvest: July - August

Farmers are facing challenges due to the COVID-19 crisis. There has been a massive decline in the planting of spearmint. This is expected to result in a price rise. Synthetic I-carvone will have a role to play as well. The spearmint crop is also facing similar challenges as the peppermint and M. arvensis crops. Due to the decrease in production, prices are expected to increase.

Vetivert Oil Vetiveria zizanoides Harvest: All Year

The global scenario for the oil remains more or less the same. But imports in India are expected to witness a rise in price until the economy sees a resurgence. This is also the harvesting season for vetiver, which has been affected by the pandemic. Luckily the output will not be affected by late harvesting. Though once normality resumes, the demand and supply gap will be felt.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: October - February

Sufficient supply is available to meet current demand, but the oil prices have hit rock bottom. Apart from existing sources in Sumatra and Java, Van Aroma is confident of securing Sulawesi as a big contributor of citronella oil. The associations with large F&F companies and partnerships with farmers in Sulawesi have been highly beneficial. The heavy production of citronella in the past 12 months in Indonesia has catapulted the country to be the leading producer of the oil globally. China and India now trail Indonesia in the global market.

Clove Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: May - September

There has been a sudden spurt in the demand for clove oil. In the near future, the price of clove oil and its derivatives could stabilise. On the other hand, the production of the oil is almost non-existent at the moment. Due to the rains it is very difficult to procure dry leaves and stems for distillation. Most distillers don’t have a stock of clove leaves and stems, which has halted production. The dry season is still two months away. Distilling is only expected to resume post Ramadan, which ends around May 24th. Exports are currently relying on feedstock accumulated in recent times by producers and exporters.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: All Year

Numerous reports of adulteration with substances like phthalates, higher methyl eugenol, higher safrole have been reported in the supply of nutmeg oils. While this is a massive area of concern, rigorous quality control procedures have helped in identifying the problem and ensured that users are safe from any contaminations. Prices could move on an upward trend as there is an increase in demand for this product in the flavour industry.

Patchouli Oil Pogostemon cablin Harvest: All Year

Most major exporters of patchouli oils are based in Java and Sumatra, even though Sulawesi is one of the biggest producers of the oil. Considering the issues being faced for inland and interisland transport, the availability of oils from these regions will be delayed. Thus, they will not hit the market anytime soon. Most exporters of the oil have forward booking. On the production front, the volumes are expected to be in line or slightly less than in the last few years. In this scenario, price reduction is unlikely. If there is a deflection in price, it will be in the range of 4-8% depending on the forecast. As far as harvest is concerned, the new crop will be harvested beginning mid-June to July. Regular rains in the producing areas are a boon for the crop. Small scale harvesting has already commenced in certain areas, and it should hit the peak in about 1.5-2 months.

Orange Oil Blood Citrus sinensis Harvest: December - February

News from this crop is rather upsetting. Farmers were already struggling with a meagre crop due to erratic weather conditions, clocking a production of below minus 80% of usual output. With the coronavirus spreading fast, there is a dearth of workers for harvesting. Though everyone was waiting for the lockdown to re-open, it is next to impossible to revive the blood orange crop.

Yuzu Oil Citrus junos Harvest: November - January

The production of yuzu is not expected to be impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. No cases have been reported in the yuzu production facility at the moment. All necessary precautions are being taken at the facility. In fact, vigilance has increased after a few positive cases were confirmed in the Kochi prefecture.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

Augmenting the growing areas, combined with ideal weather, has resulted in a flourishing of grapefruit. Mexico’s production is forecast to be 3% higher at 468,000 MT. Consumption and exports are expected to keep up with the increase in production.

Lime Oil Distilled (Key) Citrus aurantifolia Harvest: May - August

The two best known varieties of limes are Citrus aurantifolia, normally called Key lime, and Citrus latifolia, normally called Persian lime. About 52% of lime production in Mexico is Persian and 48% is the Key variety and approximately 15% to 20% of the total Mexican lime production is processed to produce lime oil. The primary product of Key lime is the distilled oil for use in beverages, while for Persian lime it is the cold expressed oil and juice.

Mexico’s 2019-2020 lime production is forecast to increase slightly to 2.422 million tonnes thanks to improved yields. An estimated 395,000 MT will be processed. While some drought conditions during late 2019 affected the main crop from Michoacán, where the production season has already finished in February, leading to a shortfall in fruit volumes of Key limes and firm prices, prices are expected to soften around the peak of the Colima season which started in April and will continue until September/October. So, at the moment Key lime oil supply is tight but should improve by June with fruit volumes for processing returning to normal levels. While the beginning of 2020 has been good for processors with an increased demand of Key lime oil, the fresh fruit market has also continued to be firm. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 represents a challenge for the fresh fruit market since restaurants, bars and food services are closed due to the lockdown in most countries.

As a result of shortfalls in 2019 and smaller fruits than the previous year, fruit prices for the Persian variety were high. As a consequence, in order to have expressed oil to offer in the market, this year processors have been processing what they could from smaller bloom. Therefore, there are challenges ahead but there is positive expectation of better weather resulting in multiple blooms.

LIME PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING 2017/18 TO 2019/20 (‘000 MT)

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: August - September

Recent annual Mexican orange production has been of the order of 4.2 million MT of which 1.9 million MT are processed. However, severe drought conditions in mid 2019 have led to forecast production in the current crop year falling by approximately 50%. This is likely to create severe problems along the supply chain. Processing will fall by at least 50% and probably more since the fresh fruit market invariably takes precedence. Assuming an average oil yield of 2.6 kg per 1,000 kg of fresh fruit, and some 1.0 million MT are processed, this points to production of 2,600 MT of cold pressed orange oil and 820 MT of d’limonene. In addition, in comparison to previous years there is likely to be lower juice ratios and aldehydes than normal.

Coriander Herb Oil Coriandrum sativum L. Harvest: May - June

Uncertainty over inventory and delays in supply is a major concern among buyers due to the COVID-19 crisis.

There has been a downward trend in the production and export of coriander oil for the last two years. The numbers are significantly lower from the corresponding ones between 2015 and 2017. With a push towards sustainability, Russian distillers are not making the mistake of over production. Distillers are now working on reducing the price gap between origin and EU sellers. High price of seeds and significant oil production costs halted distillation at origin in 2019. Certain EU sellers have stock available, but most customers have covered their demand requirements until the summer. December 2019 recorded the lowest price. Since then, demand picked up in the first quarter, while stocks went down. This has resulted in a steady increase in price since January. The new batch of Russian crop will only be available after six months. Thus, the increase in price will continue for some time.

Blue Tansy Oil Tanacetum annuum Harvest: August - October

Farmers have stopped all planting of blue tansy. Thus, no new crop can be expected in 2020. The only available supply is the one carried forward from the last harvest.

Rosemary Oil Rosmarinus officinalis Harvest: All Year

It is difficult to source raw material due to the restrictions imposed on movement. Since production has stopped completely, the carry prices are no longer firm.

Spikenard Oil Nardostachys grandiflora DC. Harvest: April - May

So far, there are adequate supplies of wintergreen oil in the market. This is primarily due to the fact that the plant is seasonal and most of the oil production takes place during the months of October and November.

Wintergreen Oil Gaultheria procumbens Harvest: July - September

So far, there are adequate supplies of wintergreen oil in the market. This is primarily due to the fact that the plant is seasonal and most of the oil production takes place during the months of October and November.

Cabreuva Oil Myrocarpus frondosus Harvest: All Year

There are limited stocks of oil available. Material is rather scarce and prices are stable.

Guaiacwood Oil Bulnesia Sarmientoi Harvest: All Year

Trading for this oil is currently at a standstill. The market for this year is yet to be opened though prices are at consistently steady levels. It has been reported that the EU’s Scientific Research Group has issued a negative opinion on guaiacwood and as a result no EU import permits have been issued. It is hoped that this situation can be resolved before too long.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

Grapefruit production has escalated by 8% to touch 420,000 MT, with an estimated 124,000 MT processed. The weather has been good for the plants, consumption has increased significantly, and demand is to be driven by the higher supplies.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: July - September

With the weather being a strong ally, the South Africa lemon forecast has increased by 6% to a high of 530,000 MT of which an estimated 130,000 MT will be processed. Another key contributor is the full blooming of existing plants and the increased area of cultivation added last year.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: June - September

Good weather, additional areas of plantation, and robust demand augurs well for the South African orange crop. Production estimates are 1.6 million MT, a marginal climb of 4%. Accounting for around a quarter of the world’s trade, exports are forecast to be at 1.3 million MT.

Rose Geranium Oil Pelargonium roseum Harvest: April - June

A 5 hectare plantation has been established in the Hoedspruit region in Limpopo for production of rose geranium. With around 230,000 plants, this plantation has adopted organic farming practices and also houses a small, 500 kg capacity distilling unit.

Lavandin Super Lavandula hybrida Harvest: August - September

The lavandins are on a growth path with demand growing over the last few years. Spain has increased its areas of planting to match growing demand. Spring has brought abundant rainfall and this is good news for farmers. The harvest forecasts are also encouraging. The social distancing norms and lockdown of the COVID-19 situation has made working in the fields, and maintenance work a challenge. Prices are going down at the moment.

Lavender Oil Spike Lavendula latifolia Harvest: August - September

Spike lavender is extensively cultivated in certain parts of Spain. The market is in a state of stagnation, though of late there has been a marginal upward movement in demand. There is no increase in planting areas but production volumes are significant and there are sufficient quantities of oil available in the market.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - July

So far, unlike its Latin American competitors, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a relatively smaller impact on the EU’s 2019/20 citrus harvest, since it arrived towards the end of the harvesting campaign. According to recent EU Commission data, the total citrus crop in 2019-2020 is estimated at 6.2 million MT, which is 5% below the 2018-2019 level, in part because of lower yields. Moreover, it has recently been reported that rising consumer demand for both fresh oranges and orange juice, as consumers look for sources of vitamin C, has led to a sharp increase in retail sales, which has more than offset the drop in foodservice demand. However, both EU fresh orange imports and exports have fallen, mainly because of logistical difficulties.

AILIMPO forecasts a 22% reduction in the 2019-2020 lemon crop due to unfavourable weather in Spain and Storm Gloria in January destroying about 80% of the citrus crop in Valencia. The latest data forecast a total production of 1.02 million MT, compared with 2018-2019 which reached the record figure of 1.3 million MT.

It is expected that demand will be activated for Fino lemons from February onwards. For the Verna variety, Spain is returning to production levels similar to those of 2017, with a total harvest forecast of 290,000 MT, which will allow Spain to consolidate its position as a leading supplier in Europe for conventional and organic fruit in April to June, with quality, sustainable and excellent service lemons. The strong fruit demand and the smaller crop size has led to increased fruit prices, which will adjust the number of lemons available for processing.

As Spanish consumers look for additional sources of vitamin C and healthy nutrients, so domestic demand for citrus products has increased. At the end of April, it was reported that this growing demand combined with an estimated 20% fall in Spanish citrus production has led to a normalisation of Spanish citrus prices from mid-April. The sector argues that it has sufficient supplies available to satisfy domestic markets. The plummeting prices of 2019 led to major protests, right up to the COVID-19 crisis, against low commodity prices and imports, especially from South Africa. At the end of March, the Agriculture Minister announced that fresh produce farmers are receiving higher prices following a pledged revision of prices along the Spanish food supply chain.

Lemon Production 2018/19 compared with 2019/20 (MT)

Black Pepper Oil Piper nigrum L. Harvest: December - February

Sri Lankan black pepper offers high oil content and high levels of piperine. Since there are no adverse climate conditions, a stable crop is predicted for the season, which began at the end of April. The price is not expected to fluctuate.

Cinnamon Oil Cinnamomum Zeylanicum Harvest: May - December

Major price fluctuations are not expected in the market. At present the cinnamon leaf oil price is slightly high because last season’s stock is being traded. Once the new season commences, the price will stabilise. On the supply side, no variations are expected. With light showers predicted in the coming weeks, cinnamon peeling will commence. Rains aid the process of peeling from the bark.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon nardus Harvest: May - December

At present the supply of citronella is stable. But, due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, the supply of citronella from Sri Lanka will increase. The demand for the oil has also gone up. Anticipating this rise in demand, farmers have increased the price of raw materials. Over the next few months the situation is expected to normalise with prices returning to stable levels.

Clove Bud & Stem Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: January - February

The price for clove is stable with no spike expected in the near future. The last harvest season for clove began in December and ended in March. Since then supply has been stable.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: February - May

The floods in Kerala in India destroyed most of the nutmeg crop. Thus, attention shifted to the crop in Sri Lanka. The nutmeg season has begun in Sri Lanka and currently supply is stable, but the shortfall due to lack of supply from India will increase the price of the product. Sri Lankan nutmeg has high content of sabinene and low amounts of safrole.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: July - November

In Turkey, which annually produces approximately 1.0 million MT of lemons, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to the rapid expansion of domestic demand for lemons for use both as a source of vitamin C and in the production of cologne, which is used as an alcohol-based disinfectant in many aspects of life. As a result, the government has imposed an export ban on lemons until the end of August in order to try to reduce the price spike following the start of the pandemic.

Cedarwood Oil Texas Juniperus mexicana Harvest: All Year

Cedarwood oil by virtue of its powerful antimicrobial property is classified as an ‘essential commodity’ in the state of Texas. It is widely used as a disinfectant and natural agricultural pesticide. As a result, distillation and distribution were allowed to continue albeit with strict precautions. One of the producers suffered major damage last year due to a fire. Oil supplies have been strained ever since. Work is underway to resume distillation at the earliest while orders are pouring in and there is pressure to meet the current demand.

Cedarwood oil Virginiana juniperus virginiana Harvest: All Year

The world’s total cedarwood supply is dominated by two of the largest distillers in the USA. The current pandemic situation has exerted extreme pressure on supply chains. Raw material deliveries are affected and the present stocks of ingredients are not adequate to run the factories on full production cycles.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

Florida’s grapefruit production forecast for the 2019-2020 season decreased in May to 4.9 million boxes, but still above the 2018-2019 crop. The white grapefruit forecast was also lowered to 800,000 boxes, while the red grapefruit forecast was lowered 200,000 boxes to 4.1 million boxes. California’s grapefruit forecast increased from 4.1 to 4.3 million boxes, while Texas saw a decline from 6.2 to 5.8 million boxes. Therefore, the total USA grapefruit crop is expected to be 15.0 million boxes, a 2.0% decrease from the forecast in the previous report. However, this still represents a higher crop than the previous season resulting in more fruits for processing. Having said that, processors are still facing a challenge. While demand for grapefruit oil white is firm, demand for grapefruit oil red has decreased mainly due to re-listing or reformulations after years of short supply due to greening and hurricanes.

According to the citrus growing associations, COVID-19 has had a dramatic impact on the sector since mid-March as grapefruit and grapefruit juice movement and sales have come to a dramatic halt as schools, restaurants and retail outlets have either closed or severely limited entrance to stores, and buyers are now cancelling orders. Over the past decade the trend in grapefruit juice prices has been downward and if there is further downward pressure then some processors may find it unprofitable to continue processing. The grapefruit season should be complete shortly and better estimates of the actual losses incurred will become available.

USDA ESTIMATED GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION 2017/18 TO 2019/20 (‘000 BOXES)

Market prices USD Pink 25.00 / White 45.00 /kilo

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

California dominates US lemon production, with the USDA forecasting Californian production in 2019-2020 of 21 million boxes out of US production of 22.9 million boxes, Arizona accounting for the remainder. This represents a 9% fall in output compared with 2018-2019.

The unique growing conditions of the Ventura coastal region of California have resulted in producing lemons of a distinctive size that primarily supplies the food service sector. The USA also imports increasing quantities of lemons, which in 2019-2020 were predicted to slightly exceed domestic production. Traditionally over half of production goes to the food service sector but this has been badly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and in April lemon growers were reported to be losing between $4 – $5 million per week as food sector sales fell considerably. More lemons will now be available for processing, which in recent years were approximately equal to a quarter of domestic production.

In early April the citrus growers of California, Florida and Texas requested support from the USDA arguing “We have reason to believe that based upon damages to date that the immediate COVID-19 impact to certain varieties of citrus will be over $200 million dollars. The citrus industry impacts have varied greatly by region and variety. To date, the biggest challenges we are seeing across the industry are due the shutdown of schools and restaurants. Additional movement in the retail sector have not compensated for losses in food service for lemons, grapefruit juice, and most specialty varieties, and it is too early to tell what the net impact will be for orange juice.”

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: February - May

Total USA orange production in 2019-20 is expected to be 120.45 million boxes. If realised, this will be around 4% less than last season’s final production. The forecast for non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason and navel varieties) in all USA production regions is 71.45 million boxes. This breaks down with Florida’s production at 29.45 million boxes, with its harvest over for this season, California’s production remaining at 40 million boxes and Texas dropping to 1.8 million boxes. Regarding Valencia oranges, the forecast is a total of 49 million boxes, with Florida dropping 1.45 million boxes from the previous season to 40 million boxes, California remaining at 8.5 million boxes and Texas decreasing from 610,000 to 500,000 boxes.

With regards to fruit size, non-Valencia oranges remain unchanged from last report, requiring 316 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Valencia oranges’ size, however, is considerably below average, requiring 252 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Moreover, final droppage, at 30%, is close to the maximum.

Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 the demand for fresh orange and orange juice by consumers has increased because of their high vitamin C content, being a way of trying to stay healthy during the current pandemic.

According to the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) Economic and Market Research Department, USA orange juice sales increased by 46 percent for the four-week period ending April 11. However, according to the citrus growers’ associations in the three major states, speciality varieties such as blood oranges, Cara navels, Valencia oranges and gold nuggets have suffered reduced sales due to COVID-19. While demand initially increased in the retail sector, the shutdown of restaurants and schools has impacted negatively. As discussed above the US citrus growers have requested support from the government.

ESTIMATED ORANGE PRODUCTION 2015/16 TO 2019/20 (MILLIONS OF 40.8 KG BOXES)

Basil Oil Ocimum basilicum L. Harvest: November - February

Dew in the weather has affected the crop. It is likely that one-third of basil will not grow as normal. This will reduce the output and production is expected to be less than last year. Since mid-February farmers have been growing basil.

Cassia Oil Cinnamomum cassia Harvest: July - December

The price for cassia oil is going up. This is due to the high demand from Chinese traders. But with reduced production activities and low supply of raw materials the oil is running out.