Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

2020/2021 was an exceptional season in terms of production levels. A severe drought that occurred during blossom and fruit set in the main growing area was expected to reduce fruit volumes. However, heavy rains in the summer rainy season allowed lemon trees to recuperate, increasing production above low initial estimates. Fresh lemon production ended 56.5% up from USDA estimates, from 1.15 to 1.8 million metric tonnes (MMT). As a result of an alternate bearing off year fresh lemon production for 2021/2022 is estimated to decrease to 1.65 MMT, compared to the previous marketing year.

Due to the unexpected increase in production in the 2020/2021 season, the fresh lemons for processing are forecast to have increased from 831,000 MT to 1.39 MMT, up by 66% from original USDA estimates. Meanwhile, for 2021/2022, fresh lemons for processing are forecast to decline to 1.29 MMT, as a result of the projected decline in fresh lemon production for this coming season.’

Similarly, due to 2020/2021 larger production and less fruit supply in the northern hemisphere fruit producing countries, fresh lemon exports increased 47%, to 264,000 MT, from USDA estimates. For 2021/2022 fresh lemon exports are forecast at 230,000 MT, down 34,000 MT from Official estimates, as a result of the forecast smaller production.

In terms of export destinations, Argentina managed to diversify fruit exports during 2020/2021, shifting destinations from the EU and Russia into other significant markets such as the USA and Canada, and non-traditional markets such as Mexico, China, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Asian markets. Those markets, both traditional and the ones that have recently been opened, are expected to strengthen during the coming marketing year, with a look toward Asian markets for expansion. Particularly, exports to the USA have shown an upward trend after regaining market access to the USA in 2016/2017. However, this significant increase of lemon exports to the USA was due to very special and favourable circumstances in Argentina that will not be the same in 2021/2022. Therefore, exports are expected to decrease substantially in the coming season.

The Argentinian lemon industry is composed mainly of companies that are integrated so they have control throughout the entire production chain. Seventy percent of fruit production goes to by-product production, such as concentrated juice, essential oils and dry peel or pectins. Nowadays the industries are producing Not From Concentrate Juice (NFC), obtained by simple fruit squeezing and a mild pasteurisation. All these products are obtained from first quality fruit and they are commercialised in internal and external markets. Most companies work under a GFSI (Global Food Safety Initiative) or another quality system and most of them work with SGF (Sure Global Fair), which is a voluntary control system.

The fresh lemon export business continues to be profitable. However, with production costs, such as labour, inputs, energy, inland and ocean freight increasing significantly, and high inflation rates, the competitiveness of the lemon sector has been affected. Furthermore, although the continuous depreciation of the Argentine peso and the elimination of export taxes make exports more price-competitive in foreign markets, a decrease in export rebates and high interest rates partially offset that advantage.

The COVID-19 pandemic has not had a major impact on the activity of the Argentine citrus industry.

USDA ESTIMATED ARGENTINIAN LEMON PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION 2017/18 TO 2021/22 (‘000 MT) 

Buddawood Oil Eremophila mitchellii Harvest: March - October

There is consistent oil supply. There is low demand for the oil. The fragrance industry is a major consumer of buddawood oil.

Lemon Myrtle Oil Backhousia citriodora Harvest: June - August

Production in 2021 touched the 3 MT figure. A steady production and processing cycle is undertaken in Australia. Companies dealing with aromatherapy products have shown interest in the oil due to its appealing fragrance. Its usage has grown significantly.

Sandalwood Oil Santalum spicatum Harvest: March - October

The market is stable. There is reduced demand for fine fragrance. However, this is expected to pick up as travel restrictions are reduce. A large consumer of this oil is the fine fragrance industry.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: May - November

There will be a huge change in the market scenario due to the floods in the area. The exact impact will be determined at a later stage but it is evident that there will be huge losses of the crop. Floods have also been responsible for reduced oil production in the past years. Prices continue to surge and the healthy demand combined with the huge loss of crop will cause prices to escalate further. Other origins of tea tree oil will find it impossible to fulfil the demand.

Orange Oil CP Citrus sinensis Harvest: July - December

The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/ São Paulo revised estimate for the total Brazilian orange crop for market year (MY) 2021/2022 is 360.6 million boxes (M. boxes), a drop of 8% compared to the previous estimate. Harvesting in the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt started in May 2021 and should be extended through February/March 2022.

Meanwhile, Fundecitrus’ updated estimate for the 2021/2022 citrus production for the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt placed production at 264.1 M. boxes, the second lowest production in almost 30 years. Adverse weather conditions including a severe drought and successive frosts in June/July negatively impacted the growth of the fruit and increased premature fruit drop. Rainfall from May to November 2021 was 344 millimetres, 31% lower than the historical average for the past 40 years. The intense drought reduced the water level of rivers and reservoirs, affecting water availability even to irrigated groves comprising more than 30% of the citrus belt area.

Brazil’s orange growth was also affected this season as a consequence of the adverse climate. Average fruit weight was reduced to 142.2 grams (287 fruits per box) in the previous forecast update, which is 15.9% lower than in the last five crop seasons. The 2022/2023 (MY, July-June) total Brazilian orange crop is forecast at 405 M. boxes of 40.8 kg each, an increase of 12% compared to the current crop. The forecast is based on the assumption that normal weather conditions will prevail as of mid-December 2021, in order to support fruit setting and development of the second blossoming from the majority of the citrus groves in the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt.

The São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt is projected to be 305 M. boxes, representing an increase of 16% compared to the revised figure for the previous season, accounting for the majority of the increase in available supplies.

Total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent) production for 2022/2023 is estimated at 1.123 million tonnes (MMT), an increase of 16% compared with output the previous season, as a result of more oranges available for processing. Similarly, consumption and stocks are forecast higher. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for nearly three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

According to the 2021 greening survey conducted by Fundecitrus, 43.4 million trees, or 22.37% of the trees in the São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt are affected by greening. This figure shows an increase of roughly 7% in the greening infection relative to the 2020 greening survey.

Many citrus farmers reported limited revenue during the 2021/2022 season despite higher prices due to the low productivity in most of the citrus belt. USDA is reporting less investment by some farmers which is likely to reduce the planted area and the renewal of citrus orchards. If confirmed, the lower production area may limit a significant harvest in the coming years, given the decrease in the productive potential in the citrus belt.

BRAZIL : CITRUS BELT ORANGE CROP FORECAST BY VARIETY

Brazil : Orange Production , Exports , Domestic Consumption and Delivered to Processors – 2020/21 to 2022/23 (million boxes )

Lavender Oil Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: July

The crop season received unforeseen rainfall. This led to inferior quality of lavender being produced in various regions. Inflation, along with expensive fuel and electricity, is expected to drive production costs up in 2022. While good quality lavender is rare, the market is steady and progressing at a decent pace. Conventional lavender is being sold at Euro 47/kg, and organic lavender oil is priced at Euro 69/kg.

Melissa Oil Melissa officinalis Harvest: July

There isn’t much trading for the oil in the market. Melissa oil is priced in the range of Euro 950/kg.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: May - June

Rose picking is a labour-intensive process, and availability of field workers continues to be an issue. Also, with an increase in fuel and electricity prices, production costs are expected to increase in 2022. Inflation will have an impact on the cost as well. As opposed to a slow start in 2020, the market did improve in 2021. The oil is priced around Euro 5,800/kg.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: June - December

Production has witnessed a decline, due to the fall in domestic crude oil price. The major producing belts in Yunnan have been hit by a fall in crude transactions around border areas. Restrictions due to the pandemic have also adversely affected production. This is similar to the situation last season.

Eucalyptus Citriodora Corymbia citriodora Harvest: June - October

There is heavy oil demand in the market, though farmers are unwilling to distil, due to the low market price. The production season is currently underway.

Eucalyptus globulus Eucalyptus globulus

In order to execute orders, certain factories are purchasing crude oil at high prices. This is resulting in hoarding of product, till producers get the desired price in the market. An extended period of low price has demotivated farmers from distilling oil. Uncharacteristic rain in Yunnan province at the beginning of the year resulted in production delays, though weather has normalised now.

Geranium Oil Pelargonium graveolens Harvest: May - September

Small volumes are being traded in the market. The production season has also ended. The price has risen slightly.

Wintergreen Oil Gaultheria procumbens Harvest: July - September

Wintergreen oil is produced predominantly in the mountainous regions of Yunnan with annual output estimated between 50 – 100 MT and shows a declining trend. The twigs and leaves are wild harvested in April-May and October-December and steam distilled in hundreds of small distillation units. Unlike many other essential oils, it is heavier than water. It is used in pharmaceuticals, fragrances and flavours. It is subject to wide price fluctuations There is limited carryover stock from last season and few transactions have been reported in the market. The crude oil price is still in the higher range.

Amyris Oil Amyris balsamifera Harvest: All Year

The demand for amyris oil is weak. Maximum orders come from large users in India, who offer a low price for limited quantities. Distilleries in Haiti are operating at very limited capacity due to the border crisis, and the difficult situation in the country. Partners in the Dominican Republic are also working at 30% capacity. But production has been restored to normal at the primary facility in the country.

Clary Sage Oil Moldova Salvia sclarea L. Harvest: June - July

There is a healthy supply of the crop. Yields in Moldovan fields were good. As a result, after the current harvest cycle, the oil price has come down.

Coriander Seed Oil Corriandrum sativum L. Harvest: July - August

Coriander seeds are in heavy demand from the spice industry. Sourcing adequate volumes of high-quality coriander seeds is becoming increasingly challenging. While raw material is available post the crop cycle in 2021, oil prices have increased.

Dill Weed Oil Anethum graveolens L. Harvest: July - September

Raw material is available, though the crop was average. The market price for the oil is stable.

Fir Needle Tyrol Oil Abies balsamea Harvest: March - September

No change in the market scenario is expected till the summer of 2022. If weather permits, production will continue during the winter, though costs will go up. Cost of production equipment has already increased significantly. In fact, regulations and guidelines need to be followed to gain access to fir needle trees. While there is heavy demand for the oil, supply is limited. This has resulted in a weekly rise in oil price.

Laurel Leaf Oil Laurus nobilis

Demand and supply for the oil is balanced. Raw material availability is also covered.

Lavender Oil Moldova Lavandula angustifolia Harvest: September

Moldova had a healthy crop this season, though COVID related issues continue to persist in Bulgaria due to the low vaccination rate. There is limited supply of good quality lavender oil. This is primarily because the crop in 2021 was disappointing compared to previous year. Thus, good quality lavender is expected to witness a price rise.

Thuja Oil Thuja orientalis

There is supply of oil in the market but price is marginally increasing.

Basil Oil Holy Ocimum sanctum Harvest: November - February

During the season it is impossible to judge the quality of the oil that will be procured. This is primarily because the land obtained depends on various factors that are difficult o control. The wild crop propagates during winter between December and March.

Cardamom Oil Elettaria cardamomum Harvest: September - December

India’s annual cardamom spice production fluctuates around 20,000 MT but its cardamom oil production is estimated at 30-40 MT along with small production of cardamom oleoresin and CO2 extract At present the harvest season is ongoing, and the crop looks good. The yield between August and December produces good quality oil. The crop season commences in June-July and continues till February. During this cycle, the pods are plucked five times. The oil price is expected to stay firm.

Carrot Seed Oil Daucus carota

A stable demand, but unpredictable supply dynamics lead to a rise in oil price. Carrot seed oil is mostly exported and does not enjoy heavy local demand. The harvest season is over and yield was moderate. Carrot seed oil saw high prices last season, and the trend is expected to continue this season as well.

Coffee Coffea arabica L. / Coffea canephora Harvest: November - January

The harvest period for both the robusta and arabica is currently on, and the crop is good. The harvest cycle for robusta variety lies between December and April, while for arabica it is between November and January. Coffee demand is on the rise. Apart from the flavour industry, the strong, earthy, oriental aroma of coffee has become a major draw for the fragrance market too. Currently, the coffee price is stable.

Davana Oil Artemisia Pallens Harvest: February - April

The oil is being produced to cover confirmed orders in the market. Due to its low yield, farmers have been wary of the crop. With returns diminishing every year, the last few years have seen a massive spurt in oil price. Currently the harvest season is underway, and the crop is good.

Frankincense Oil Boswellia serrata

Resins and oil produced from frankincense find use in the fragrance and pharmaceutical market. Aromatherapy and home care industries lead the demand for frankincense oil. The crop was harvested in November and resulted in a good yield. Frankincense is a wild tree, which flourishes in north, centre, and west India. Currently the oil price is stable in the market.

Jasmine Absolute Jasminum sambac & Jasminum grandiflorum

Grandiflora – during the harvest season the flowers are converted to concrete. Absolutes are produced as per demand. The current crop is good and the harvest will carry on till November. The price is not expected to fluctuate.

Sambac– the last harvest cycle produced a decent crop.

Juniper Berry Juniperus communis

Price mostly fluctuates, since supplies are reliant on imports from Pakistan. Himachal Pradesh is the only region in India that produces juniper berry. The harvest was good, and the season culminated in November.

Lemongrass Oil Cymbopogon citratus Harvest: July - November

At the moment the oil price is stable. A good new crop is the primary reason. The harvest cycle of lemongrass is every 60 days. The last harvest was in November 2021 and the first harvest of the year is in progress.

Palmarosa Oil Cymbopogon martini Harvest: January - June

The oil price is firm and expected to remain so in the coming months. The last harvest was promising.

Star Anise Oil Illicium verum Harvest: September - November

Star anise grows in the spring season, and is native to southern China and northern Vietnam. It is primarily used in local cuisine in these regions. In India, Arunachal Pradesh is the only region that has conducive conditions for star anise growth. It is an evergreen tree, which mostly grows up to 10 feet, but sporadically touches a height of 26 feet. Supplies from China were hit a few months ago, which affected the price. It has stabilised now.

Turmeric Root Oil Curcuma longa Harvest: March - May

There is global demand for turmeric all through the year from the flavour industry. The harvest season is between February and March, and the crop appears to be good. With product availability firm throughout the year the price is stable.

Vetivert Oil Vetiveria zizanoides Harvest: All Year

Vetiver produced in the south of India has higher demand. There are different varieties produced in the south, and they cater for various industries like flavour, tobacco, and perfumery. The crop is stable, but this high demand leads to a rise in price. On the contrary, north and central India produce limited varieties and the price is stable. The harvest season between January and March is underway, and the resulting crop is good.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon winterianus Harvest: October - February

There is steady demand for the oil, though supply is limited, and logistic costs have escalated. Farmers lost interest in citronella due to diminishing returns. This led to reduced oil production. Currently the oil price is rising because of the demand supply dynamics. This trend is expected to continue for the coming months.

Clove Oil Eugenia caryophyllata Harvest: May - September

Indonesia usually transitions from the rainy season to the dry season during the months of March and April. The leaves become drier and yields go up. However, there are many factors that will influence the price development of clove in the coming months. There is a strong demand for clove and its derivatives. The supply of CLO from Madagascar has been limited and also there are international logistical challenges. There is a slight drop in price but the exact impact on price due to global challenges would likely be determined by May.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: All Year

The current situation is firm. Due to the ongoing logistic disruptions, moving material out of Indonesia is a challenge. The stock for minimum 10 % myristcin material is extremely low. Prices will see an upward trend in the months to come.

Patchouli Oil Pogostemon cablin Harvest: All Year

The price of patchouli oil seems stable at the moment. The logistical challenges are the same as for other products. No major changes in prices are expected in the coming months.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - January, April - July

Italy is the second largest European lemon producer after Spain. Sicily is the main lemon producing area, accounting for 88% of domestic production. Femminello, Siracusano, Lunario, Interdonato, Limone di Procida are the leading lemon varieties grown in the country.

Italy 2021/2022 lemon production is forecast to decrease from the previous season due to floods that hit Sicily at the end of October causing damage to lemon groves.

 Top EU Fresh Lemon Producers (Tonnes )

 EU Lemons fresh : Production , supply and distribution (‘000 metric tonnes )

Lime Oil Citrus aurantifolia Harvest: May - August

Mexico is the world’s second largest producer of limes, and it is the second largest produced citrus crop in Mexico after oranges. The main lime producing states in Mexico are Michoacán, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Tamaulipas. Persian lime is the most widely cultivated variety and approximately 50% – 60% of Persian limes from Veracruz are for export. Mexico is the top supplier of limes to the United States accounting for over 80% of total exports. Key limes go mainly to the fresh domestic market, with approximately 16% – 20% for processing.

According to the USDA, the production forecast for market year (MY) 2021/2022 is 3.21 million metric tonnes (MMT), 7% higher than the previous MY, due to good weather conditions in the growing regions, investments in irrigation systems, and new plantations in the states of Oaxaca and Veracruz. Consumption and exports are at record highs due to the greater supplies. Limes for processing are also expected to be more than the last crop because of the increase in production.

2021 was one of the most challenging years for the lime oil industry in Mexico due to the high demand for fresh fruit and the low availability of fruit for processing, which caused a general delay in the global supply and an increase in prices. Other outside factors, such as inflation and labour shortages, have been amplifying the issue and causing prices to be even higher. However, as yields start to increase, the supply situation is expected to improve and be better than the last two crops, and prices are expected to begin stabilising.

Aggressive price-fixing by criminal groups in Mexico has also contributed to the price escalating. Cartels are imposing increasing controls over producers during the bumper crop season. Some farmers have abandoned their fields to avoid dealing with the cartels.

The global container shortage was also a challenge in 2021 and will remain so in 2022. Container rates are likely to remain high until at least the first half of 2022, though lower than in 2021.

 Fresh Mexican limes : production , supply and distribution (‘000 metric tonnes )

Eucalyptus Oil Radiata Eucalyptus Radiata Harvest: August - October

Organic – At present watchful buyers are dominating the market, and large orders are not being placed. Demand for the oil is expected to be within last year’s range. A good summer rainfall has given production an early boost, though autumn rain will govern production in the second half of the year. Inadequate or late rains are both detrimental and will impact the crop in the second half.

Conventional – Customers for the product remain constant and have a steady demand pattern. The market for the conventional variety is smaller.

Eucalyptus Smithii Oil Eucalyptus smithii Harvest: July - October

In tune with most essential oils, the demand for Eucalyptus smithii has been low in the first few months of 2022. However, novel applications in the global market and local usage is expected to witness an upward growth in the coming months. Demand for the oil could rise in the second half of the year. The addition of new cultivation areas has strengthened the supply. Eucalyptus smithii is a crucial product for the South African market.

Tagette Oil Tagetes erecta Harvest: June - August

This season the supply is expected to equate with demand. Extended periods of rain have increased the production period, which can commence earlier and carry on until late autumn. This year, substantial quantities of tagette oil are expected to be produced.

Tea Tree Oil Melaleuca alternifolia Harvest: October - January

A good crop and stable yields are expected all through the year. The majority of tea tree production areas have received decent rainfall.

Organic Tea Tree oil – the demand for the oil is only expected to rise in the second quarter of 2022. There is plenty of stock build-up in the market, which will take 2-3 months to be absorbed. This excess stock is a result of COVID-19. Currently there is limited demand for organic oil in the market.

Conventional Tea Tree oil – A small buffer stock could remain at the end of the year, after meeting industry requirements. Production in South Africa is equipped to handle all orders. At present there is heavy demand for the oil in the market.

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: November - July

Spanish lemon production represents around 15% of total Spanish citrus output. Spanish lemon production is concentrated in the regions of Murcia and Valencia, and the provinces of Malaga and Almeria in Andalucia. The leading lemon varieties grown are Fino, accounting for 70% of total production, and Verna, a Spanish variety representing the remaining 30%. The Fino variety is predominantly used for processing. Around 25% of Spanish lemon production is destined for industry use as Spain is the second major global industrial lemon manufacturer, mainly juice, essential oils, and dehydrated peel.

Spanish 2021/2022 lemon production is forecast at 1 million metric tonnes (MMT), a decrease of 11% compared to the previous season. The decline is mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions that affected flowering and fruit set in some production areas, mainly impacting the Verna variety. Lemons for processing are forecast to decrease in line with the decline in production.

In recent years, Spain increased its total planted area for lemons to meet its domestic and export demands, standing at around 48,000 hectares (ha) in 2020. Of this planted area, 17% is under certified organic lemons. According to the Spanish lemon sector, certifications are key elements to differentiate Spanish lemons and promote economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable lemon production.

Cinnamon Bark Oil Cinnamomum zeylanicum Harvest: May - December

Raw material shortages along with fertiliser problems have hindered the oil production process. Unlike the plentiful supply of raw material in the last quarter of 2021 shortages can be expected until the next harvest this year. The cinnamon season concluded in the second half of November. The dry spell from November to April makes it an off-season for cinnamon. A significant depression of the local currency (LKR) is expected, which will benefit exporters and buyers. This is a result of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s LKR/USD peg. It failed to favour foreign buyers.

Cinnamon Leaf Oil Cinnamomum zeylanicum Harvest: March - August

Obtaining large volumes will be a challenge before the upcoming season in April. A price rise will only augment the problem. The holiday shutdown in December 2021 did not result in a price decline. The last quarter has witnessed firm oil prices. With the off-season commencing and fertiliser troubles arising, production is expected to be hit till the next season.

Citronella Oil Cymbopogon nardus Harvest: May - December

Persistent rainfall in December 2021 impacted production but the overall output of citronella remains good. Recent demand trends have been healthy for the industry. The consistent rise saw demand levels go up in the fourth quarter, which resulted in a significant price rise.

Clove Bud Oil Syzygium aromaticum Harvest: January - February

A disappointing crop in December 2021 will adversely impact the price.

Nutmeg Oil Myristica fragrans Harvest: February - May

The oil price has been constant for the last few quarters. The final harvest of 2021 was weak, due to the heavy rain in December.

Laurel Leaf Oil Laurus nobilis Harvest: January - April

There is a global demand for the product. Amongst Turkey’s produce, laurel leaf is the second most significant. The harvest season stretched from September to November, and the yield was good. Demand and price are firm.

Oregano Oil Origanum vulgare Harvest: July - September

Commercially, sage oil isn’t a significant product. The harvest season spreads across August and September. It was a good yield, and the price is stable.

Rose Oil Rosa damascena Harvest: April - June

It is a consistent crop with a good yield, but in winters harvest becomes a challenge. The fragrance and cosmetics industries in Europe and the Middle East always have a demand for the oil. Turkey’s biggest competitor is the rose oil produced in Bulgaria, though the local variety is cheaper than the Bulgarian one. The demand and price for the oil are holding firm.

Thyme Oil Thymus vulgaris Harvest: June - August

Unfavourable weather conditions resulted in a disappointing crop. This has led to a supply shortage. The harvest season for thyme is in June. The oil is used mostly for agricultural activity, poultry, beekeeping, aromatherapy, medicine and food. At present oil prices are on the higher side.

Cedarwood Oil Texas Juniperus mexicana Harvest: All Year

The oil produced by a few suppliers is mostly being consumed by big buyers like IFF. These customers are paying a premium to get priority access to the product. There is a massive shortage of cedarwood oil supply in the market. This is primarily because of the reluctance of wood suppliers to work. The price of wood has gone up from USD 65/ton to USD 95/ton, but with the US government providing money without work to these suppliers they have no inclination to work.

Grapefruit Oil Citrus paradisi Harvest: December - April

USA grapefruit production is expected to be down 11% to 9.2 M. boxes compared to last season’s final production, due to smaller harvests in California and Texas. Fruit for processing and exports are forecast lower due to reduced supplies.

The forecast for Florida grapefruit production remains unchanged from the previous season at 4.1 M. boxes. The distribution comprises 3.3 M. boxes of red and 800,000 boxes of white.

California grapefruit decreased from 3.9 to 3.5 M. boxes, while the Texas grapefruit forecast tumbled from 2.4 M. boxes in 2020/2021 to 1.6 M. boxes in the February 2022 forecast.

Supplies of grapefruit oil, particularly white grapefruit oil, are limited. Prices are based not only on nootkatone content – and the typical 0.2% nootkatone product is difficult to find – but also on agricultural residue content and new stricter regulations are in place for citrus oils. The volatility of grapefruit oil supplies and prices has led to decreased demand as some customers have removed grapefruit oils from their formulas.

TABLE USA ESTIMATED GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION 2019/2020 TO FEBRUARY 2022 FORECAST (‘000 BOXES)

Lemon Oil Citrus limon (L.) Burm. F. Harvest: May - July

Arizona lemon production is expected to increase. The February USDA forecast for 2021/22 stands at 1.4 M. boxes, up from 1.3 M. boxes in December and from 800,000 boxes final production in 2020/21. The forecast for California lemon production rose from 21.3 M. boxes in 2020/2021 season to 23 M. boxes. Because of the larger crop, lemons for processing are expected to be higher.

Orange Oil Citrus sinensis Harvest: February - May

USA orange production is forecast to drop to a record low of 91.5 M. boxes due to poor fruit set in California and the continued decline in area and yields as a result of citrus greening in Florida. Consumption, exports and fruit for processing are all lower with the drop in production, while imports are projected to be flat due to weak consumer demand.

According to the USDA February 2022 forecast, Florida orange production for the 2021/2022 season is expected to be down by 18% compared to last season’s final production, and 2% lower than the January USDA forecast, at 43.5 M. boxes, which will be the smallest crop in 75 years. The Florida crop continues to decline because of hurricanes, a real estate boom, frost and citrus greening, which is the most concerning reason. The California orange forecast is 47.6 M. boxes, down from last season’s 50.1 M. boxes; and the Texas orange forecast, at 400,000 boxes, is down more than 50% because of severe winter storms which damaged a good portion of the crop.

The Florida orange total forecast is comprised of 17.5 M. boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason and Navel varieties), and 26 M. boxes of Valencia oranges. The California orange total forecast is comprised of 39.0 M. boxes of non-Valencia oranges, and 8.6 M. Boxes of Valencia oranges, while Texas accounts for 300,000 boxes of non-Valencia oranges and 100,000 boxes of Valencia oranges.

The lower orange production volume will affect the supply of juice and orange oil and other by-products. USA production of orange juice is projected to fall 7% to a record low 215,000 tonnes due to the drop in oranges available for processing. Exports are forecast down with the lower production, while significantly higher imports are insufficient to counter falling consumption.

A major recent industry concern is the implementation in the USA of a new ruling regarding no tolerance levels for chlorpyrifos insecticide. This could result in many rejections of orange oil on quality grounds thus making a difficult situation even worse. According to growers, chlorpyrifos can remain on the trees for 2 to 3 years.

USA ESTIMATED ORANGE PRODUCTION 2019/2020 TO FEBRUARY 2022 FORECAST (‘000 BOXES)