A Roller Coaster Ride for Brazil’s Citrus Market in 2025/26 -By Felippe Biz July 3, 2025

A Roller Coaster Ride for Brazil’s Citrus Market in 2025/26
Let’s buckle up and enjoy the ups and downs of the season!
-By Felippe Biz

As 2025 begins, Brazil’s citrus market faces both opportunities and challenges. With the first report of the year shedding light on the 2025/26 crop, it’s clear that the season will be anything but smooth. From unpredictable weather to global demand dynamics, the citrus industry seems set for a roller coaster year.

A TOUGH OUTLOOK FOR ORANGE SUPPLY
Friday, January 3, 2025

Once again, orange supply in Brazil’s São Paulo state and the Triângulo Mineiro region may struggle to meet demand in the 2025/26 season. Although October 2024 brought much-needed rain, breaking nearly a year of below-average rainfall, its effects remain uncertain. Orchards,weakened by prolonged water stress, saw a strong bloom in mid-October. However, experts warn that the summer weather in 2025 will determine the fate of the crop. A hot summer could lead to further setbacks for already fragile orchards, potentially keeping orange supplies tight. By February, a clearer picture of the drought’s long-term impact is expected. In the meantime, growers and industry stakeholders are bracing for more challenges, as the citrus belt struggles to recover from a challenging 2024.

 2024/25  SEASON: A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE

The 2024/25 orange crop was estimated at 223.14 million boxes of 40.8 kg—a steep 27.4% decline compared to the 2023/24 season. According to Fundecitros (Citrus Defense Fund), this represents one of the lowest levels of production for São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro in years.

Such a sharp drop in production has left orange juice stocks nearly depleted. Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) highlights that even with reduced orange juice exports in 2024/25, Brazil’s stockpiles will see a drastic decline. This depletion underscores the need for a strong 2025/26 crop to ensure even minimal recovery for the sector. Adding to the pressure, domestic demand remains high, with factory deliveries averaging 105R$ (17.5 USD) per 40.8 kg box of oranges.

GLOBAL DEMAND AND FLORIDA’S CHALLENGES 

Brazil’s orange juice market isn’t only under strain from local issues—global factors are also at play. Florida, a major player in the citrus industry, is grappling with its own challenges. According to the USDA, Florida’s 2024/25 orange production is projected at just 12 million boxes of 40.8kg—a significant 20% drop from October’s estimate of 15 million boxes. This decline is attributed to the combined effects of citrus greening and Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida’s orangegrowing regions in October 2024.

As a result, the U.S. will need to import more orange juice from Brazil, adding further upward pressure on domestic prices. In January 2025, orange juice prices hit an all-time high of $7,431 USD per ton—a 1% rise from January 2024 levels.

2025/26: UNCERTAINTY AHEAD 

Despite the late 2024 rains, the 2025/26 season is unlikely to deliver above-average yields. Late blooms in non-irrigated areas and below-average fruit development have left experts doubtful. Even irrigated orchards, which bloomed earlier in July 2024, are underperforming. These conditions, coupled with dwindling stocks and tight production, suggest that orange prices will remain high throughout 2025.

INVESTMENTS IN THE CITRUS  BELT 

As the high incidence of citrus greening continues to plague São Paulo, investments are shifting to other states such as Mato Grosso, Paraná, Goiás, and Minas Gerais. São Paulo’s record levels of citrus greening in 2024 have discouraged new plantings, particularly in heavily affected regions. The Triângulo Mineiro has emerged as an alternative hub for orange cultivation, but challenges remain. Limited land availability and water resources for irrigation pose obstacles to large-scale expansion.

 TAHITI ACID LIME: A GLIMPSE OF RELIEF 

While the orange market faces tight supplies and rising prices, Tahiti lime producers have a different story to tell. The supply of Tahiti limes is expected to surge at the start of 2025, with peak harvest beginning in January and lasting until mid-March. During this period, prices are likely to remain low, limiting earnings for growers. To offset these challenges, producers are focusing on exports and industrial processing. This  approach may help stabilize the market, even as the high supply continues to weigh on prices.

CONCLUSION 

Brazil’s citrus market is entering 2025 with a mix of uncertainty and opportunity. While oranges face a tough road ahead, both domestically and globally, investments in new regions and the diversification into limes provide some glimmers of hope. As we wait for February’s updated outlook, the industry remains braced for another unpredictable season.